Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

11,000ft storm totals are around 6" in the NW Mountains and 3" in the SE Mountains as of 5am. SW to W winds are continuing to build new wind slabs, and these will remain your primary avalanche problem today. In the last couple of days we have seen 2 backcountry riders unintentionally trigger wind slabs (here and here), several controlled avalanches, and even a natural avalanche cycle in the Ruby Range. The most likely areas to encounter this avalanche problem will be on the lee sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. Safer backcountry riding can be found in wind-sheltered areas where you can expect to use normal caution. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Overnight SW winds were blowing in the teens with gusts into the 30 mph range. Those winds are now veering to the west and northwest today. A fresh round of wind slabs is now stacking on an older generation of wind slabs created earlier this week. Slabs that are 6 to 12 inches thick on average, can be human triggered, and if one of these slabs steps down it could quickly become larger than expected. The most common locations to encounter this avalanche problem will be on the lee sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features. 

    A ski cut released this wind slab on Wednesday March 30th. ESE, 11,900ft.  

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2

     Slab avalanches breaking into old snow layers have become unlikely to trigger, but this avalanche problem can't be 100% eliminated. The most likely areas to still trigger this avalanche problem would be on a northerly facing slope, potentially from a trigger point where the snowpack transitions from deep to shallow near rock outcrops or wind-eroded terrain, or unsupported steep slopes between cliff bands. If you choose to ride steep terrain on the northern half of the compass, don't expect any obvious red flags related to this avalanche problem, and plan your regrouping areas outside of the potential avalanche runout. 

    This large persistent slab avalanche was remotely triggered on 3/18. 

Avalanche Discussion

Here are the 5am snow totals from last night. Schofield 5" and .4SWE. Upper Slate at 11,000 6". Irwin 2". CBMR 1.5". Upper Taylor Park 4" and .3SWE. The wind recorded on the Scarps Ridge Weather Station is blowing from the southwest to west and has increased from 10mph at midnight to 20-30mph this morning. 

This is a fairly simple picture that has continued to build on the wind slab avalanche problem we have seen through the week. Earlier this week we saw reactive wind slabs releasing on a density change within the storm snow. The majority of the recorded avalanches this week have occurred in the NW mountains where the most snow has accumulated. Observations yesterday showed that these previous wind slabs had moved from reactive, to stubborn. There is uncertainty as to whether we will see the fresh wind slabs step down into these older slabs. Either way, this avalanche problem has become more difficult to manage, and seeking wind-sheltered terrain may be the best strategy for today. 

The avalanche danger was raised to CONSIDERABLE above treeline in the NW Mountains due to the growing avalanche size and the possibility of natural avalanche activity today. The avalanche danger remains MODERATE in the SE Mountains due to the smaller avalanche size and any natural avalanche activity either isolated or unexpected. 

Below treeline elevations don't have a primary avalanche problem. You can expect to employ normal caution at lower elevations in the SE Mountains with unstable snow only existing on isolated terrain features. In the NW Mountains, snow totals are creeping up and requiring backcountry travelers to make more careful evaluations. In those snow favored areas, you could encounter cross-loaded slopes at lower elevations, or isolated areas with enough snow to form soft slabs on steep wind-sheltered terrain. 

Regions covered