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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2014–Jan 23rd, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the region bringing mainly clear skies and dry conditions for the forecast period. On Thursday the freezing level should hover at about 1500m, but another inversion will set in for Friday and Saturday with above freezing alpine temperatures. Winds should remain mainly light and west/northwesterly for all three days.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no new reports of significant avalanche activity although some sluffing continues on steep solar aspects during the warmest parts of the day.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow overlies a variety of surfaces which include hard, stubborn windslabs in exposed upper elevation terrain, a melt freeze crust on steep, sun-exposed slopes, and well developed surface hoar at treeline and below. Ongoing warm daytime temperatures have promoted settlement within the snowpack, while cool nights have allowed for significant surface faceting.Closer to the ground, below a generally strong and well settled mid pack, there are 2 layers of note: the late November surface hoar, and a crust/facet combo which formed in October. Both of these layers represent a low probability-high consequence scenario. In short, the likelihood of a release at these interfaces is low, but avalanches would probably be very destructive in nature. Possible triggers include cornice fall, significant warming, or thin spot triggering on an unsupported slope in the alpine or at treeline.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.