Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A little refresh of snow is on the way today, but not enough to significantly change the avalanche conditions. The southwest winds are stronger in Summit Lake than in the surrounding forecast regions as of this morning, so wind slab avalanches up to 1' deep are possible today. There is a small chance of triggering a large avalanche on buried weak layers 2 to 4' deep. This problem is isolated to slopes above 3000'.

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We are sending our thoughts and support to everyone affected by the ongoing avalanche incident near Truckee, California. Rescue efforts continue in challenging conditions following an avalanche yesterday (Feb 17) involving a group skiing from a backcountry hut. Multiple people have been located and evacuated, with approximately 9 individuals still unaccounted for at this time. Information remains preliminary, and we hope for the best in this tragic and dangerous situation.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: Over the weekend, some small wind slab avalanches were reported, but no larger avalanches stepped down to deeper weak layers. 

    Light snowfall is expected throughout the region today, but the southwesterly flow associated with this storm tends to favor the Anchorage Front Range and Hatcher Pass for heavier snowfall totals. About 1 to 3" of new snow is expected from Girdwood through Seward today, with the rain line remaining at sea level or possibly rising to 100 to 200'. This amount of new snow is not going to be enough to form new snow avalanche problems. 

    The forecast is calling for light south winds in Summit Lake, but as of 6 am, the ridgetop weather station on Summit Peak is showing averages around 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. If those winds keep up today, fresh wind slabs up to 1' deep could form on leeward slopes in the alpine.  You can look for shooting cracks or hollow feeling pillows of wind-transported snow to help identify locations with potential wind slabs. 

    NWS Anchorage Snowfall Forecast for Today's Storm.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Our scarier avalanche concern today is the low likelihood of triggering a large avalanche on a buried weak layer 2 to 4' deep.  The snowpack has been gaining strength over time, but a skier or rider still has a chance of triggering an avalanche on these buried weak layers. This problem is isolated to higher elevations, above 2500', due to the ice crusts that formed in the snowpack below this elevation two weeks ago. To avoid this issue, you can stick to lower elevation slopes or limit your exposure to large steep slopes in the alpine.

Regions covered