Avalanche forecast

Eastside Region

Eastern Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Heavy wind loading on slopes with buried weak layers will make for very dangerous avalanche conditions today. Big natural avalanches coming down from above may be likely, and there’s a real potential that you can trigger avalanches large enough to bury you. Travel in and under avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Heavy precipitation on the Sierra Crest today will add more low-density snow for strong southwest winds to drift onto leeward slopes. At higher elevations, slabs could be thick and propagate across entire start zones. Avalanches are capable of running far down the slope. Wind slabs that break within new or recent storm snow could step down to buried weak layers, resulting in unsurvivable avalanches. Avoid avalanche terrain and the slopes below wind-loaded avalanche paths. Poor visibility can make terrain assessment difficult.

    (2/18/2026) Fresher looking debris field

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3.5

    Continued wind loading will increase stress on a weak snowpack. Avalanches breaking on old snow buried 3 to 6 feet below the surface could be triggered by the weight of a smaller avalanche or a single human. Recent snow has settled and stiffened into a slab, even at lower elevations, and more slopes have become unstable. Feedback includes collapses and deep shooting cracks–like those experienced by riders on McGee yesterday. However, these signs can be inconsistent and unreliable. These avalanches could be triggered remotely from adjacent terrain. They could propagate long distances, connecting terrain features. Give yourself a wide safety margin and avoid being on or under slopes over 30°.

    (2/18/2026) New snow sitting on top of sugary facets

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    3 to 4 feet of snow has fallen in the past 72 hours, and another 18 inches is forecast for Mammoth and the Sierra Crest. In places that receive the most new snow today, storm instabilities, both slabs and sluffs, will be cause for concern in sheltered terrain. Recent natural avalanches are a good sign that human-triggering is still possible. Be cautious around steep terrain features or slopes with terrain traps, such as trees, gullies, and cliffs.

    Photo: Steve Mace

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's avalanche and stability observations were revealing. One observer noted very large avalanches starting near a wind-loaded ridge, which ran down to Swall Meadows Tuesday night. Multiple soft slab avalanches failed naturally near and below treeline during the same period. At least one of these avalanches, below treeline in June, appears to have failed on a buried weak layer. Riders at lower elevations on McGee were spooked by widespread collapses in old, sugary snow.

The recent storm snow has settled into a slab near and below treeline. In many instances, the slab sits precariously atop weak facets. Stability will most certainly deteriorate with additional loading today. Listen to the mountains and make a plan that involves low-angle slopes with no exposure to avalanche terrain overhead. Make coming home tonight the measure of your success. 

A major avalanche accident occurred on Tuesday, February 17th, in the Lake Tahoe area. Our deepest condolences go out to all those affected by this tragedy.

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