Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

An Avalanche Warning remains in effect. Consecutive days of heavy snowfall and strong winds are overloading a shallow snowpack riddled with weak layers. Large avalanches will release naturally and be easy to trigger on or adjacent to slopes steeper than 30 degrees, especially on the north half of the compass. Some avalanches could run long distances towards the valley floor. Use the avalanche terrain map to plan routes that avoid start zones and runouts.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Slab avalanches breaking on buried weak layers will be easy to trigger and will run naturally under heavy snowfall rates and productive windloading.  The north half of the compass has the most fragile weak layers buried in the upper and lower snowpack (see video) and is most likely to produce natural releases, remote triggers from flat terrain, widely propagating, and destructive avalanches.  Southerly aspects have a more springlike snowpack structure, reducing the likelihood that avalanches break deeper and larger than the storm snow.  Manage today's persistent slab problem by avoiding travel on or below terrain steeper than 30 degrees on problematic aspects, including runout zones.     

    A large natural avalanche on Schuylkill Ridge that ran during our last storm.  Expect many avalanches like this today, with slabs and debris piles growing larger through the day.  (2/12/2026) Photo: Miles Morris

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Heavy snowfall rates and strong winds will create sensitive instabilities that break in the new and drifted snow.  Storm slabs will be thicker and most reactive on leeward slopes at higher elevations.  Avalanches in the new snow can easily step down and produce deeper, larger avalanches on the north side of the compass - an unmanageable problem.  Wind-protected southerly aspects will host relatively smaller instabilities, which may be easier to manage on smaller, less consequential terrain.    

    An example of a small storm slab from the archives.

Avalanche Discussion

The first phase of yesterday's storm underperformed on snowfall but met our expectations for strong-to-extreme winds.  The second phase began last night and is tracking to be more productive with snowfall. Storm totals early this morning are 10" to 18", and strong southwest winds have been steadily loading our most worrisome aspects for the past 24 hours.  Visibility and avalanche observations are limited. The wheels are expected to fall off the bus today if the storm continues to rage on as forecast (see weather tab for details).  

It's a great day to enjoy powder at the ski resort or on low-angle slopes! Mind your overhead hazard from remote trigger or natural releases: a terrible accident occurred yesterday in the Sierras, where a large group was likely overrun by an avalanche from above.  Our snowpack is rebounding from a historically shallow and weak structure through the first half of the winter.  Loading events following prolonged droughts are often a recipe for accidents, not only because of powder fever but also because droughts create weak layers that behave unexpectedly.  This field video from Elk Creek before the storm outlines the setup ahead of what will likely be our largest loading event and avalanche cycle of the season so far. West to north to east aspects are most dangerous: widespread weak layers near the ground and in the upper snowpack are capable of producing the largest, most destructive avalanches. Wind-sheltered or wind-eroded southerly aspects have relatively smaller, easier-to-manage instabilities and fewer overhead hazards. Even there, storm slab size is increasing except where the snow is accumulating on sagebrush or bare dirt.  

Today will be the peak of natural avalanche activity.  Tomorrow, snowfall tapers, winds decrease, temperatures cool, and natural activity is expected to decline.  We will see a shift in wind direction, and depending on how strong the winds become, additional transport from a fresh fetch could sustain some natural activity in higher-elevation terrain.  Avalanches will remain sensitive to human triggers.  We are evaluating danger on a day-by-day basis at this point; stay tuned.

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