Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack is slowly improving, but a person may still trigger a large avalanche failing on weak snow buried 2 to 6 feet deep or deeper. This will be most concerning at middle and upper elevations where surface crusts are unsupportable or nonexistent. You can avoid this problem entirely by staying out of steep terrain. If you are starting to ease into steeper slopes, avoid anything with terrain traps and avoid the bigger terrain while the snowpack continues to heal.

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Join CNFAC forecaster Dr. John Sykes at Arctic Valley this afternoon for a chat about current conditions and thoughts on managing terrain while dealing with a problematic snowpack. The event is free, and the talk will start at 5:30.  CNFAC is hosting several other avalanche awareness and rescue workshops in the coming weeks in Anchorage, Seward, and Turnagain Pass. Click this link to get more information!

Join us Friday, Feb. 13, for the annual Snowball fundraiser! This event is a collaboration with the Alaska Avalanche School and is always a fun way to support two nonprofit organizations that provide avalanche information and education in our area. Silent auction, beverages, hors d'oeuvres, and music by Hope Social Club! Tickets and event info at alaskaavalanche.org

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have been lighter at Turnagain Pass than they were at Summit Lake and Seward, but there may still be some isolated pockets at upper elevations where a person can trigger an avalanche in wind-loaded terrain. Be on the lookout for unstable snow near the surface in the alpine where the wind has drifted the snow into stiffer slabs. This will be most likely near ridgelines, convex rollovers, and steep gullies.

    You may notice signs like shooting cracks or collapsing, but those won't always show up even when the snowpack is unstable. Keep in mind, a relatively smaller avalanche failing near the surface may trigger a larger avalanche failing on the deeper weak layer discussed in Problem 1 above.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: The most recent storm system resulted in a widespread natural avalanche cycle, with multiple wet slab avalanches in the middle elevations (1500-2000'), and a few larger avalanches in the alpine (see the photo of Big League for example). This cycle was not as active as last week.

    While it may not have done wonders for surface conditions, the recent onslaught of warm, wet weather has helped improve snowpack stability now that things have cooled off again. The two biggest things working in our favor are (1) refrozen snow surfaces will support a lot of weight and make it very hard to impact deeper weak layers, and (2) the weak, faceted snow that has been a concern for over a month is beginning to bond under the added weight and warm temperatures.

    All of this is good news, but we are not out of the woods yet. A person can still impact that deeply buried weak layer at elevations where the surface crust is unsupportable or nonexistent. While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche on this layer is decreasing, the potential size of these avalanches remains large and destructive. You can avoid this problem entirely by staying away from steep terrain. If you are traveling on steeper slopes, avoid anything with terrain traps like cliffs, trees, or depressions that could collect debris in deep piles.

    After nearly a  month of elevated avalanche danger, we are just barely starting to carefully nudge out into steeper terrain. For now, that means taking baby steps and leaving the big terrain alone while the snowpack continues to heal.

    (2/6/2026)

    Crown of a natural avalanche on Big League above Girdwood, propagating across complex terrain.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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