Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Cohesive slabs rest on top of very weak facets deeper down in the snowpack.  You can trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche that breaks on or near the ground.  Strong winds over the last several days have continued to load slopes and drifted snow into stiffening wind slabs at upper elevations. Even a smaller wind slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers.   Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses as these are indications that you've found this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak.  It's possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away.  Sticking to terrain 30 degrees or less without steep slopes above you will provide safer skiing and riding options. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong westerly winds over the last several days have been drifting snow into stiff cohesive slabs on the leeward sides of ridgelines and cross-loaded terrain features at upper elevations. Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows and stiff smooth hollow sounding slabs on the surface.   Although you can trigger a wind slab that starts on the surface, expect that it can step down into deeper weak layers as these slopes also harbor our persistent slab problem.

    Moderate to strong westerly winds have been transporting the recently fallen snow into deeper stiffening wind slabs at upper elevations 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    A widespread layer of facets and depth hoar make up the bottom of the snowpack across most slopes.  Cohesive slabs from recent snow and wind rest on top of these persistent weak layers creating a persistent slab avalanche problem at all elevations.  You can trigger a large and dangerous avalanche that's big enough to bury you, and it's possible to remotely trigger a slope from a distance away. Don't be lured into thinking the absence of shooting cracks and audible collapses means the slope is safe. Assume all slopes are suspect until proven otherwise.  Taking the time to dig a quick pit is a great way to assess if strong over weak layering is present on the slope you plan to play on.  

    A very large natural avalanche on N aspect on Sin Nombre that most likely ran on 1/2 during the storm.  Slopes are well connected right now and able to break widely across slopes.  

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's system brought a lot of wind and an inch of snow. Starting today a nice stretch of weather is in store through Tuesday, with sunny skies, warming temperatures during the day, light winds, and cold clear nights.  Over the last week, a series of storms dropped 15 to 20 inches of snow with about 1.9" of SWE.  Over this time period, we haven't seen much of a break from the moderate to strong westerly winds that have drifted snow and loaded slopes into deeper stiffer slabs. 

We currently have a dangerous set-up of very weak faceted sugary like snow near the ground that was widespread prior to these holiday storms over the last week. These faceted persistent weak layers formed in our shallow snowpack during the prolonged periods of dry and cold weather we had earlier in the season and reside under a decomposing rain crust from earlier in December. We've now introduced a dense cohesive slab on top that is more uniform and better connected across slopes enabling avalanches to break wider across terrain features. Upper elevations have not had much of a break from wind loading and explosive control work continues to produce large avalanches over the last several days.    

What's driving this sustained considerable avalanche danger is that we still have a shallow snowpack where weak layers are still easily able to be to collapsed to trigger an avalanche. With incremental loading from storms and wind events, the snowpack hasn't had much time to adjust.  With a nice stretch of weather ahead and we move further away from loading events and slabs stiffen and settle and weak layers adjust to the added weight, the snowpack will become less talkative, and obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and whumpfs will not be as widespread as we've been seeing.  This will lead to a lower likelihood of triggering a slide, but the consequences will still remain the same. 

It's been a relatively slow start to the season here in northern NM, and it's easy to want to get out and chase powder on a blue bird beautiful day.  However, with a snowpack structure like we have, it's going to take time before we start to see it heal and gain strength. Unfortunately, this process doesn't happen instantly or quickly.  With a still relatively shallow snowpack, no big storms on the horizon, and cold temperatures this time of year, it may be some time before we start to see these faceted persistent weak layers gaining strength.  So stay patient and continue to practice good travel techniques, with a conservative mindset.      

 

We will be going to Friday/Saturday/Sunday for daily forecasts with danger ratings and General Avalanche Information Products Monday - Thursday.

 

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