Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Most slopes are adjusting to the ongoing dry spell, but not all terrain has fully stabilized. Expect stubborn wind slabs on recently drifted slopes, and give yourself a cautious margin on the shady side of the compass near and above treeline where a low-probability persistent slab could still break deeper and wider.  The safest and highest quality riding is in wind-protected terrain at lower elevations.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Although instabilities are becoming increasingly harder to find, the most hazardous concern is the lingering threat of triggering a slab that fails 1.5 to 3 feet deep on depth hoar, facets, and faceted crusts without obvious warning signs.  In the Southeast Mountains, slabs are most likely to be triggered in terrain where slabs are more cohesive from previous windloading. The most reliable way to manage this problem is by choosing slope angles less than 30 degrees.  Southerly aspects and elevations below ~10,500' offer safer snowpacks, where slabs are less common and weak layers are often capped by stronger crusts. 

    A large persistent slab on a wind-loaded slope near Crystal Peak that likely ran around January 10th during a previous wind event. 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Strong to extreme northerly winds last week formed thin, hard slabs on features that collected drifting snow. The wind event mixed down to mid and low elevations, cross-drifting relatively small slabs onto weak, faceted snow surfaces - most commonly on the shady side of the compass where there was more snow available for transport.  These slabs will stand out as smooth, hard, lens-shaped snow formations, next to wind-eroded areas or softer, wind-rippled snow surfaces.  Skirt around these harder drifts in consequential terrain to avoid getting pushed into trees, rocks, or gullies.  

    In this skier-triggered wind slab from last week, you can see where the slab formed on the lee or cross-loaded side of the subtle ridge line. To the lookers' right and left of the slab, you can see wind erosion with some raised tracks.

Avalanche Discussion

There are two flavors of slab problems to manage in the backcountry right now.

The first is relatively small and easy to recognize on the snow surface.  Last week's northerly winds formed thin, hard slabs over the fragile snow surface that is our current January dryspell weak layer.  As this problem was developing last week, skiers and riders triggered five D1 to D1.5 wind slab avalanches on east and northeast aspects near and below treeline, with a few natural avalanches on high-elevation southerly aspects. The broad distribution reflects northerly winds mixing into lower elevations and blowing across the terrain that was holding onto dry, soft snow available for transport.  Now that these drifts have stiffened, they've become stubborn to trigger but are expected to persist because they formed over facets. This problem is also self-policing, as the best riding conditions are found on wind-protected or wind-eroded slopes where slabs are absent.

The second problem is less common but carries more serious consequences and should remain at the forefront of your decision-making.   Slabs breaking several feet thick on December and November weak layers have become increasingly isolated and are now considered unlikely as our dry spell continues. It has been 11 days since we had measurable snowfall, and more and more slopes are finding equilibrium without ongoing loading.  Persistent slab activity over the past week has been limited to a few explosive results, one very large natural just outside our forecast boundary, and a smaller step-down avalanche that began as a skier-triggered wind slab.  Last week's wind events eroded weight from many suspect slopes and concentrated it onto features that collect drifting.  As a result, the slopes most likely to still be near a breaking point are those that have been recently stressed by wind loading.  

Upcoming Outreach Events:  

Fireside Chat:  Jan 23, Dave Scheefer "Historical avalanches in Gunnison County."  Mallardi Theatre 5-7 pm.

Trailhead Day: Jan 24, Slate River, 10 am-2 pm.

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