Avalanche forecast

Snoqualmie Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

A potent storm bringing extreme wind and heavy snow will create very dangerous avalanche conditions on Tuesday. A heavy new load combined with a wet and saturated snowpack will lead to overlapping hazards that require a wide margin of safety. Give the mountains another day to adjust to the multi-day wallop by avoiding steep open slopes and their runouts. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    1-2ft of snow with extreme winds equals avalanches, natural and human-triggered. Slides will be big enough to injure or kill a backcountry traveler. There could be failure planes within the fresh snow, or the new snow could slide on a surface crust. While slabs could be plenty reactive in wind-sheltered terrain, danger will be even higher where the wind drifts snow into deeper and harder slabs. Some of these slides could break above you, propagate widely across the terrain, and run well into lower-angle terrain below. Though usual locations near ridges and below cliffs will certainly be suspect, expect to find reactive slabs well below the ridge into all elevations. 

    Fresh avalanches, cracking, and collapsing are obvious signs of instability, and you can use hand pits, uptrack tests, and small test slopes to assess for bonding. Blowing snow is another red flag. That said, the best way to manage on Tuesday is to stay off of and out from under steep open slopes, regardless of what you see and feel. Given the multitude of hazards and unrelenting storms, it isn't worth poking the bear. Lower-angle forested slopes could hold good riding conditions tomorrow! 

    (2/16/2025)

    Debris from a larger natural storm slab avalanche that ran far down into the trees. A reminder that soft storm slabs can occur in forested terrain!

    Photo: Dallas Glass

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    We are using glide as a catch-all for a variety of wet problems that could present on Tuesday. Much of the snowpack is still soaked and it will take time for the water to drain and/or re-freeze. These avalanches are unpredictable, can release after the rain has subsided, and can be large and destructive. Don't linger below any open glide cracks. 

    Wet loose will be smaller in size but more likely to occur. They will be especially likely at lower elevations near the rain/snow line. Steer clear of steep slopes if you see moist snow on the surface, sink in past your boot tops into wet snow, or see rain falling on new snow.

    Wet slabs are far less likely, but can't fully be ruled out. This would be an extremely unlikely, but devastating avalanche. Upper and middle-elevation slopes on the northern half of the compass where the JDL and 1/10 may still be intact are the most likely locations, and it would probably take a larger trigger, like a wind or storm slab avalanche, to cause a release. By avoiding the storm slab problem, you will avoid this issue as well. 

    (2/24/2025)

    A glide avalanche on a northeast aspect on Low Mountain. This large slide likely released sometime between 2/21 and 2/24.

    Photo: Josh Lipkowitz

Avalanche Discussion

Though the specifics are uncertain, the general picture is clear. Our snowpack is in an ongoing 12-round prize fight and the next storm has arrived. We don't yet have a clear picture of the avalanche cycle that occurred over the weekend, but reports describe multiple slab, loose, and glide avalanches. Monday, NWAC forecasters found wet snow in the upper 2ft of the snowpack, an intact and weak 1/10 complex, and a surface crust at all elevations which could serve as a slick sliding surface for the incoming snow. 

2"+ of additional snow water equivalent with 50 mph winds would be enough to drive spicy avalanche conditions in the best of times, and this is anything but that for our snowpack. High wind speeds will drive elevated hazard even if you find lower amounts of snowfall locally, and a heavy new load on a stressed snowpack deserves caution. The weather doesn't look pleasant on Tuesday, so between that and the avalanche hazard, it could be a good day to rest and wait for the calm weather to come.

We'd love help documenting avalanches from last cycle. If you are out and about, please shoot some photos and submit an observation!

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