Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Cooler overnight temperatures should improve stability, but increasing daytime temperatures could make it possible for you to trigger wet snow avalanches again. A very large natural avalanche occurred in the Baker backcountry Wednesday morning, reminding us that a weak layer buried several feet deep could still produce avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A wet loose avalanche cycle occurred Monday afternoon and Tuesday as wetting first happened in previously dry snow. Reactivity decreased Wednesday, and Wednesday night temperatures will cool, and we may see a slight surface freeze. We’re quickly reminded that it’s spring by a rapid rebound to 5500ft freezing levels by the afternoon. All aspects will likely soften again. 

    Rollerballs and an occasional wet loose avalanche triggered by a human in the top foot of snow will probably remain the case Thursday. Expect more reactivity in shallow snow or steeper locations at mid to upper elevations, where previously dry snow existed. Make sure to stay alert if you enter a steep slope, paying attention to how much snow is moving around you. If a large amount is running, don’t continue making your way down the slope and consider transitioning off the steep slope to lower angle terrain.

    (3/16/2022)

    You might still be able to trigger wet loose avalanches like these, especially in steeper and/or shallower areas.

    Photo: Lee Lazzara

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    A very large natural avalanche occurred on the Shuksan Arm in the Baker backcountry Wednesday morning. You can read the observation HERE. It happened one week after the last known avalanche on the deeply buried persistent weak layer, and this avalanche probably failed on the same layer. The avalanche is a stark reminder that even if we don’t get constant feedback, it’s still out there. This problem is also not to be taken lightly with its low probability, high consequence nature. There’s a good chance you might not trigger an avalanche, but if you do trigger and get caught in one, you probably will be killed. We’re finding this problem on large, upper elevation unsupported slopes on the northerly half of the compass, buried 3-5+ feet deep. 

    This isn’t really a “manageable” avalanche problem that can be figured out. You are either in the terrain where one of these large, unsurvivable avalanches could occur, or you are not. If you choose to travel in these areas you are simply accepting a slightly higher risk of triggering or being exposed to this problem.

    (3/23/2022) A very large natural avalanche which occurred early Wednesday morning on the Shuksan Arm. Possibly up to a 5' crown. Photo: Kris Stemmler

Avalanche Discussion

If skies clear overnight, we may see a freeze up to a few inches deep. We could see some clouds and not as solid a freeze. Any amount of cooling and freeze on the snowpack is good, and the more the better at helping the snowpack transition to spring conditions. Pay attention as snow softness changes throughout the day. The amount of freeze dictates how quickly the snow will soften and the likelihood of wet snow avalanches on Thursday. Whether the snow freezes or not, travel conditions are challenging right now, and even with a crust your feet will probably punch through to softer snow beneath. Most surfaces are variable and bumpy, so prepare for difficult travel on your outing Thursday.

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