Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Triggering a large, destructive avalanche is likely today. These will fail on weak layers buried beneath a 1-2.5 foot thick slab and can be triggered from long distances away from steeper slopes. These weak layers exist on most slopes, from valley floors to mountaintops—avoiding avalanche terrain is the only way to avoid them. Freshly-forming wind drifts and slabs will be reactive and can act as triggers for deeper weak layers.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    You can trigger large, dangerous avalanches on just about any steep slope you encounter. Yes, even at lower elevations and in terrain sheltered from the wind. Widespread weak layers are now buried beneath 1.5-3 foot thick slabs. This combination produced a remarkable avalanche cycle in this zone last weekend, with avalanches likely numbering in the hundreds. 

    In the past two days, I've experienced very large, booming, rumbling collapses in different portions of this zone. I could feel the snowpack drop beneath me when these happened, and watched as snow rattled off of hundreds of trees over large areas. Yesterday, a public observer reported seeing a relatively recent avalanche that had been triggered by an animal. These are obvious signs of instability that should not be ignored. Tilt these collapses up onto a steeper slope and you have yourself an avalanche. 

    Persistent weak layers produce avalanches that behave in surprising ways. They can break wider than you'd expect and can be triggered remotely—from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steep slopes. Plan your day expecting to be able to trigger these types of avalanches. Thanks to the widespread nature of the weak layer+slab combination, avoiding slopes steep enough to slide is the only way to ensure a safe return home. Playing on or below steep terrain continues to be a risky dice roll.

    (12/13/2022) Numerous large avalanches were observed in the Lake Ck Drainage N of Ketchum. This large avalanche is on a NW-facing slope at 8,400' near Triple Pk.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Freshly forming wind slabs will be reactive to your weight today and will grow in size, distribution, and sensitivity today. These slabs are most widespread at upper elevations, though they may extend down into middle elevation terrain in places where the wind is blowing harder. Be on the lookout for blowing snow up high on peaks (known as flagging) as indications that the wind is at work. You can use these to get an idea for what the wind is doing, even before you leave your car. Surface textures like ripples and dunes can help key you into the presence of wind slabs. These slabs aren't likely to be large today, but they could be pretty touchy. Importantly, small slabs that fail (both naturally and the ones you trigger) can act as effective triggers for the deeper weak layers, producing a much larger, more destructive avalanche.  These slabs are also adding stress to the buried weak layers described above.

Avalanche Discussion

The intense storm that blanketed our area drew to a close 5 days ago. This snow fell on an exceptionally weak snowpack that developed during early-season droughts. The resulting avalanche cycle was truly impressive. Hundreds of large avalanches occurred, on slopes from the valley floors all the way to the mountaintops. Houses were hit, the Big Wood River was dammed by avalanche debris, and multiple human-triggered avalanches occurred. It's hard to drive around or ride through the mountains and not see the aftermath of an avalanche.

We've enjoyed a mostly calm period after the big storm. That is changing. Wind speeds picked up and shifted to blowing out of the western portion of the compass overnight. If you've been out skiing and riding powder lately you know that there is plenty of snow available for the wind to transport. Winds appear to be blowing at good loading speeds and will continue to do so throughout the day. Expect to see slabs grow in size and distribution, and become increasingly reactive as they do. The weak layers in our snowpack are widespread. That means that just about anywhere the wind is building slabs it is adding stress to the weak layers underneath. 

I wouldn't be an honest man if I told you that waiting for stability to improve is easy. Standing in the sun and looking at steep slopes covered in perfect powder and deciding not to ski or ride them is flat-out hard. Trust me, I know. Nothing brings me more joy than playing in steep terrain on snow-covered mountains. But that's not where you will find me this today. The chance of triggering large, destructive avalanches is far too great. Instead, I'll be searching out low-angle ridgelines for skiing and deep, powdery meadows for riding, all while paying close attention to the terrain above me. I strongly encourage you to do the same. We are all lucky that this region provides plenty of opportunities for both. 

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