Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Human triggered avalanches are likely at the middle and upper elevations today, especially where wind affected storm snow lies on top of buried weak layers. Relatively small slopes are currently capable of producing consequential avalanches in and around terrain traps such as creek bottoms and gullies. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential today. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A weak basal snow pack exist on most aspects and elevations. Slab depths range from 2-4 feet.

    Todays storm will increase the number of possible triggers through sloughing, cornice failure, rapid loading, and other smaller avalanches. 

    The only way to rule out this problem is by digging a hole in or near the slope you plan to ski or ride. 

    (1/20/2023)

    Common avalanche slope. Failed on persistent weak layer 2-3' deep. 

    Photo: Penterson

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Up to 12 inches of new storm snow is possible by early this evening, with westerly winds in the 20-30 mph range (gusts up to 40). This will build wind slabs that could be 1-2 feet thick and sensitive to human triggering. This snow lies on a variety of old snow surfaces, including - but not limited to - sun crusts, windboard, laid down surface hoar, and possibly small near surface facets. A poorly defined frontal passage is on deck for this afternoon/evening.  

    Moniter the wind direction and look for evidence of cracking within wind drifted snow. 

Avalanche Discussion

Today will bring an interesting confluence of avalanche problems. Togwotee is currently in the midst of a 48 hour long loading period that is being provided by a moist NW flow. Weather highlights include snowfall rates in the 1 inch per hour range and possible storm water totals in excess of 1 inch by  Saturday evening. Winds will be westerly and moderate to strong at ridgeline. 

This is a welcome reprieve from a relatively dry NNW flow regime that has left the Togwotee with a variety of snow surfaces and riding conditions. Recent avalanches have involved buried persistent weak layers and include glide avalanches.

Current snow depths range from less than a meter on previously wind scoured aspects to well over 2 meters deep on leeward aspects at the upper elevations. Westerly winds will work to load southerly and easterly slopes today and build overall slab thicknesses. Significant settlement (and subsequent slab cohesion and tensile strength) should occur over the next 48 hours or so.  

Regions covered