Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Moderate east winds will be creating fresh wind slabs up to 1.5’ deep above 2,500’. These may be forming over buried weak layers which will make them easier to trigger. Wind slabs can be found on steep wind loaded slopes below ridges and in loaded gullies. Below 2000’ wet loose avalanches will be easier to trigger on steep slopes where the snow is wet. Other hazards include glide avalanches releasing and cornice fall due to warmer temperatures and strong winds. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate  ridge top winds (15-25 mph) from the east will be forming fresh wind slabs 1 to 1.5’ deep above 2,500’.. These will likely be forming on top of weak snow that formed during the past 2 weeks of clear, cold weather. This setup with a wind slab over weak layers will probably create slightly larger avalanches that will be a little easier to trigger than expected. 

    Wind slabs typically form below ridgelines, convex rolls, and in loaded gullies. Active wind loading, and recent avalanche activity indicates the snow is being stressed and capable of avalanching. Getting on small inconsequential slopes looking for shooting cracks beneath you or triggering a small slide are a great way to see how easy it could be to trigger a larger avalanche on bigger slopes.  Cornices will continue to grow today and may break off and trigger a wind slab avalanche above you. Consider spacing out and exposing one person at a time if you travel under a cornice. 

    It will be easy to trigger loose avalanches on steep slopes. There were reports of wet loose avalanches seen below 2,000’. Above the freezing line where the snow is dryer, dry loose avalanches could be a problem in places protected by the wind. Both of these can entrain a lot of snow and carry someone off a cliff or into the trees.

    So many things to look out for today. Glide avalanches are making a comeback with new glide avalanches being reported almost every day including one yesterday on Seattle Ridge in Turnagain Pass. These avalanches can be huge so if you see a glide crack above you (looks like a brown frown), looking for ways around them is the safest option or move one at time past them.

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