Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The main concern in Summit Lake remains the chance that a person could trigger a large avalanche up to 6' deep above 2,500'.  The most conservative option is to wait this out and stay away from steep upper elevation slopes. Glide cracks are opening up across the region, keep an eye out for these and avoid them when possible. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The Avalanche Rescue Workshop at Glen Alps has been POSTPONED to Sunday, February 9th.  The workshop is free and all experience levels are welcome. Click HERE for more information.

It's not too late to catch us on our brewery tour this week. The Girdwood Brewery is hosting us tomorrow for a conversation about the world of snow and avalanches:

  • Forecaster Chat - Thursday, February 6th, 6-7:30 p.m. at Girdwood Brewing Co. in Girdwood. Andrew Schauer will discuss recent CNFAC research and highlight ways it can help your backcountry game. Details HERE.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3.5

    With each passing day of calm weather, the chances go down that the weight of a human could trigger one of the buried weak layers near the ground in Summit Lake. We would have to find just the right thin spot in the snowpack near rocks (they could be buried and not visible mid slope) or in wind scoured areas. The last big storm on January 25 and 26 produced very large avalanches on these layers so we know they can fail with a big enough trigger or finding the right spot. 

    Wind Slabs: Winds are forecast to be 20 mph above 5,000' today, but if they come down a bit they could make some new wind slabs in the upper elevations. Watch for blowing snow to know this is happening. Fresh wind slabs will often give a sign like a shooting crack to let us know they need more time to stabilize. 

    Sun effect: The sun and warm temperatures the last few days were affecting steep south facing slopes in Turnagain Pass. Upper elevation temperatures are cooling off and there may be a breeze today, but if you see roller balls this is a sign a loose avalanche or "sluff" could be triggered naturally or by a human. 

    Cornice Fall: With upper elevation temperatures cooling, conditions aren't as ripe for a cornice fall as they have been the last few days, but giving them some room on the ridge and watching them while passing underneath is still a good plan. 

    Glide avalanches: With another new glide avalanche yesterday, right on the boundary between the Summit and Turnagain zones, we are keeping a close eye on the glide situation. Glide cracks are popping up across the region (we haven't noticed any in Seward, but maybe we just haven't seen them?). They are difficult to see from below so try to get a view of the route from afar. Choose an up route that gives any glide crack plenty of space as they could fail at any time. 

    (1/29/2025)

    Big fat slab sitting on top of suspect weak layers. This photo is a week old, but nothing has changed about this set up.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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