The avalanche danger is HIGH at upper elevations, CONSIDERABLE at mid-elevations, and MODERATE at low elevations where human-triggered avalanches involving soft slabs of storm snow or wind-drifted snow are likely and natural avalanches are possible. Avalanches may fail 1 to 2 feet deep at one of the many storm snow interfaces or on some isolated upper-elevation northerly slopes, on a more-deeply buried persistent weak layer.
Today will be a brilliant day and the low-density snow from overnight will offer superb riding conditions on slopes less steep than 30°.
Winds over the past 24 hours have drifted snow on all aspects, especially above 9,500'. This avalanche problem may be more subtle than usual: in field work yesterday, UAC forecasters noted even the slightest hint of wind-drifting created a sensitive soft slab. Watch for cracking as an indication of sensitive conditions.
The 2-3 feet of snow (containing 2-3 inches of water) that has fallen this past week will ultimately help with our lingering persistent weak layer (PWL) problem, but for now, it has added a stress to the snowpack in areas where the PWL remains, notably repeater slopes that have avalanched more than once this season. Unless you have precise knowledge of the snowpack history on a particular slope, you can assume a steep, northerly-facing slope has probably avalanched this season.
Soft slabs of storm snow may be sensitive today, failing within one of many different density changes that exist in the 1-3 feet of the recent storm snow, as shown in the photo below from Nat Grainger. The low-density snow from overnight may also create long-running sluffs at upper elevations, and dense snow at low elevations may create long-running wet/loose avalanches.
March kicks off our Spring Campaign! If everyone in Utah’s backcountry community donates the cost of something they regularly enjoy on an adventure—like a dawn patrol burrito, a backpack snack, or post-ride trailhead drinks—we could fund not just one but two forecasters for the entire season! Donate here. Thank you!
A natural avalanche cycle occurred mid-day Thursday, during a period of heavy snowfall.
We received an observation from Joseph Moore who reported dense, new snow and shallow sensitive soft slabs on the Three Temptations above Tibble Fork on Thursday.
As of 5 am, temperatures are in the low 20's and winds are blowing from the west/northwest, gusting into the 30's mph at the highest elevations and 10-15 mph along exposed mid-elevation ridgelines. 3-8 inches of new snow has fallen overnight, with 2 to 3 feet of snow (containing up to 3.5 inches of water) having fallen since Wednesday.
For today, expect light snow showers with perhaps an inch of new snow. Temperatures will rise into the low 30's F and winds will be from the northwest and veering northerly, blowing 15-20 mph along exposed mid-elevation ridgelines and 30-35 mph at upper elevations.
March is our snowiest month and the upcoming weather forecast seems to support this. Sunny and warm this weekend, with an active storm pattern looking to return early next week.
CLICK HERE FOR MORE GENERAL INFO AND FAQ
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
