Avalanche forecast

Seeley Lake

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The snowpack in the Seeley Lake zone is generally stable. However, there is a possibility of small wind slabs along upper elevation ridgelines and small wet loose avalanches on sunny aspects today. Carefully evaluate the snowpack for signs of instability, such as shooting cracks or rollerballs, before committing to slopes over 35º. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–1.5

    The Seeley Lake zone received 1 to 3 inches of new snow and moderate west winds in the last couple of days. This is less new snow than in other zones, and consequently, any fresh wind slabs will be very small and isolated to near the highest ridgetops. There may also be lingering pockets of older wind slabs that are still reactive. The rider-triggered wind slab last Friday that caught two people highlights this possibility. Snowmobilers may be more likely to find the trigger point because they can affect the snowpack deeper than a skier. The mountains are never without some risk of avalanches, and continual diligence is required. 

    Wind slabs appear smooth and rounded and are often found just below ridges and in cross-loaded gullies. Cornices, wind lips, and drifts all indicate wind direction and loading. Signs of instability like shooting cracks warn you to stay off steep slopes. Carefully evaluate the snowpack before committing to wind loaded terrain over 35º.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Small wet loose avalanches in the recent snow will become possible today on sunny aspects as they warm up under mostly clear skies. Increasing winds and high clouds this afternoon may limit the extent of solar warming. However, the recent snow is low-density and very susceptible to warming. The avalanches will be limited in size but could be hazardous if they push riders into or over terrain traps. If the snow is wet and rollerballs start, it's a sign to move to lower angle slopes or shadier aspects.

Avalanche Discussion

Snow totals over the last few days are highly variable due to the showery nature of the snowfall. The Central Bitterroot received the most snow, with 8 to 10 inches. Totals in other areas range from 1 to 6 inches. The storm initially brought strong west winds, but they quickly died down as the snow piled up. The result is that sensitive wind slabs are isolated to near ridgetops in areas that received the most snow. Below ridgetops, there is excellent powder skiing in low density snow. 

In the southern Bitterroot yesterday, there was enough sun to cause a widespread rollerball cycle on south and west aspects. Further north, cloudier skies kept the snow cool. Today we can expect mostly sunny skies and light winds with increasing high clouds and winds in the afternoon. Small wet loose avalanches in the recent snow will become possible on sunny aspects. They will be the largest in areas with more abundant recent snowfall. 

The crust facet combo in the Bitterroot has been added as a new avalanche problem. It has been found sporadically throughout upper elevations in the Bitterroot zone, but the distribution is still unclear. It is worth digging down to see if it exists before committing to steep terrain. We will continue to track the layer as the season progresses. 

Stability is generally improving, and there will be excellent skiing and riding conditions today. However, in the last week, there have been several unintentionally triggered avalanches. Thankfully, everyone involved has avoided injury or burial. We still have a variable mid-winter snowpack with isolated weak layers. Remember that even a small avalanche can have serious consequences in unforgiving terrain. Do your homework before committing to steeper slopes, and use safe travel practices, such as riding one at a time. Low danger doesn’t mean no danger. 

Please let us know what you find out there by submitting an observation.

Ski and ride safe.

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