Avalanche forecast

Hatcher Pass

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is LOW at all aspects and elevations. By the afternoon, expect the avalanche danger to rise to MODERATE for WET LOOSE avalanches on southerly aspects at mid and upper elevations above 2,500'.

We are in full-on Spring. Consistent, calm weather has contributed to the upper snowpack consolidating following the slab avalanche cycle that began after 3/18. While our PERSISTENT SLAB problem has become isolated and unlikely to trigger, it is still worth managing steep and extreme terrain with good travel protocols at mid and upper elevations. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche during the heat of the day as the upper snowpack warms up.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    We have seen daily avalanche activity on solar aspects throughout the forecast area in the last week. Although some days this activity has been smaller and confined to extreme terrain, the main trend has continued: near or above freezing daytime temperatures with strong solar input on southerly slopes. Yesterday, forecasters observed some newer, larger wet loose point releases on the Punk Spines on the Arkose side of the Little Susitna River on southeast and southwesterly aspects. Both natural and human-triggered wet loose avalanches will be possible on steep slopes greater than 35 degrees on southerly aspects above 2500' during the heat of the day. With less snow and limited steep south-facing terrain below 2,500 at lower elevations, you are unlikely to see consequential wet loose avalanches start below 2,500' 

    While traveling on solar slopes, use the skill of observation of red flag signs of warmup: natural wet loose avalanches, pinwheels and roller balls and wet, gloppy or sloppy snow. These are all indications that you could trigger a wet loose avalanche. With this problem, be mindful of terrain traps like gullies and ravines that could make a small avalanche more consequential. 

    PERSISTENT SLAB: We have not seen any human triggered avalanches of the March persistent slab problem for a week (see below). The last observed persistent slab in the area was seen on Saturday 3/21 on a N facing aspect adjacent to Stairstep with an unknown occurrence time and trigger. During this time, we have had lots of recreators riding and skiing terrain with no reported results in snowpack tests. Facets have rounded (healed) and we have seen increasing stability. We have high confidence that this isolated problem will be unlikely to trigger today. 

    As a reminder, unlikely does not mean impossible. If you traveled in steep and extreme terrain that previously avalanched during the January storm cycle or found a buried firm crust with an intact slab over it, you could still find and trigger a small persistent slab. Even a small slab in complex terrain could have unintended consequences. Use ski poles to search for areas of thicker snow on firm bed surfaces, and remember that cracking, collapsing, and "hollow" snow indicates potential instability. Travel on loaded slopes with caution, have an exit plan, and space out one at a time when crossing or descending avalanche paths. 

    Natural wet loose in Microdot/Rae Wallace basin on southerly aspects on 3/25.

    Photo: Andy Dennis

Avalanche Discussion

RECENT AVALANCHES: 

Numerous wet loose avalanches have been observed on SW, S, SE aspects throughout the forecast area. The last reported human-triggered persistent slab was from a week ago while a party was bootpacking near the Pinnacle. 

View all recent observations here. 

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