Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Extended dry weather has created primarily stable avalanche conditions. However, due to the poor snowpack structure it is not impossible to trigger an avalanche 1-3 feet. Triggering an avalanche is unlikely, but watch out for wind-affected, upper elevation terrain that is very steep, shallow, and shaded.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Weak layers buried 1-3 feet below hard slabs can still be found in middle and upper elevations on W-N-E aspects. These weak layers formed in November have trended stubborn and unlikely to trigger an avalanche, but cannot be ruled out entirely. Stability tests are still showing propagation and unstable results. Very isolated terrain that remains concerning is where you’ll find a spatially variable snowpack from obvious wind affect (scoured and loaded) containing shallow, sensitive pockets on very steep and rocky slopes.

     

    Upper elevation terrain that has been affected by the wind. Note the rocky, scoured slope to the left of the skier. Slopes like this contain shallow areas where humans could impact the weak layer.

Avalanche Discussion

Conditionally Stable

As a colleague said to me yesterday, the snowpack is conditionally stable. Meaning the snowpack is stable for now. We haven’t seen any avalanche activity apart from the avalanche near Gunsight Pass in the Greys River forecast zone for quite some time. The November drought layer appears dormant based on avalanche activity, but is still producing propagation during stability tests. Hence why you see it listed as a problem still. With some ambitious terrain choice and bad luck you could still find that one sensitive and weak spot on the slope to trigger the persistent slab. We sound like a broken record, but this is not impossible. Alpine terrain with obvious wind scour and deposition near the critical slope angle of 40° where the snowpack appears weak and shallow is where I wouldn’t test my luck. Low danger does not mean no danger. 

As conditions change this next week with forecasted snowfall, that November weak layer will be at the forefront of our minds. Avalanche danger will remain the same today as it was yesterday. Snow surfaces will also become an important factor as incoming snow falls on a variety of weak interfaces including crusts and a multitude of facet types (around 6 inches thick on those shaded slopes). Tracking snow surfaces is ultimately how we track avalanche potential. These drought conditions we’ve seen in December will surely create some interesting avalanche concerns in the near future. Today, enjoy the stable riding conditions and ability to explore the mountains. 

*Snow coverage remains thin so watch for those obvious or hidden obstacles lingering below the surface. 

 

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