Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

We have continued moderate avalanche hazard through our forecast area. A human or machine may be able to trigger an avalanche on weak layers of snow buried 1-3 feet. This is most likely in areas that have been previously windloded. Solar-triggered avalanches may become an additional hazard on south to west facing slopes as the afternoon sun affects steep rocky terrain. 

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Special Announcement:

Join the Valdez Avalanche Center for its Annual Spring Fling Fundraiser at Growler Bay on March 28, 2026!

Enjoy a lively evening with friends, local food and drink, and our ever-popular silent auction—all in support of avalanche forecasting and education for Valdez, Thompson Pass, and the Copper River Basin. Come celebrate the season, bid on great items, and help keep our backcountry community informed and safe.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Weak faceted snow continues to be found buried under 1-3 foot thick windslabs on the leeward sides of specific terrain features in the Richardson Highway corridor.  This problem is currently stubborn to human/machine triggers. However, areas where thinner windslabs overlie a weak, shallow snowpack may have increased sensitivity. Keep in mind that a thinner section of the slab could propagate into a much deeper area, as shown in the attached picture from 3/25. Use your probe to assess slab thickness as well as the strength of the underlying snow, and try to avoid slopes with strong slabs on top of weak facets. There is quite a bit of variability with our snowpack right now, so continued assessment while using cautious travel protocols is advised as you move through terrain.

    Slopes may support multiple travelers before producing an avalanche. Signs of instability with this problem will be limited due to the hardness of the slabs as well as the deep burial of weak layers in some areas. Smaller avalanches have the possibility of triggering deeper weak layers in the snowpack. Avoiding steep convex terrain on the leeward sides of terrain features is recommended, especially if you see signs of previous windloading.  

     

     

    Persistent slab triggered by a large group doing rope rescue practice.

    Photo: Paul Ramseth

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose and other solar-triggered activity has been limited for the time being, but we are keeping this problem on our list in anticipation of increased activity in the near future. Warming has been very slow this spring, but temperatures will continue to gradually increase into next week. Calmer winds and slight increases in temperatures this afternoon may create the possibility for solar-triggered activity on South to west-facing slopes. Keep an eye out for moist snow, small loose snow avalanches, rollerballs, and failing cornices, as sunny slopes warm throughout the day. If you observe any of this activity, you can expect hazards to increase with additional sun exposure.  

    Please share any observed avalanche activity to help us track this problem.

     

    (3/23/2026)

    Wet loose avalanche activity on South Hogsback that triggered a couple of small slabs towards the tail end of the debris

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Weak snow near the ground is increasingly common as you move North through our forecast zones, with the Continental zone being the most concerning. Although it still remains unlikely to trigger this layer, areas that have been scoured from strong northeast winds now have a shallower snowpack, making this layer closer to the surface and potentially easier for a rider to trigger.

    This is a low-likelihood but high-consequence problem most likely to be triggered in steep, rocky terrain and areas where the snowpack is thin or scoured. Triggering this layer directly is unlikely at this time, but avalanches that start in the upper snowpack could step down to the basal weak layer.  There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the poor structure at the base of the snowpack.  

    (2/25/2026)

    Deep slab natural avalanche on The Wall / north/~5800'.  Failed sometime in mid February

    Photo: Jed Workman

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  

3/25 A group of skiers remotely triggered a D2 persistent, hard slab avalanche right off the road on the lower flanks of Girls Mountain.

Photo: Paul Ramseth

3/24-Natural Cornice failure on 40.5 Mile Peak that triggered a deep pocket of snow to fail at the ground in extreme terrain.  

Photo: Paul Ramseth

3/23- 2 Natural D2 wet loose avalanches on the south side of Hogsback ridge ~3500'.  One slide stepped down into two small slabs near the tail end of debris.

 

Forecast Discussion

We have had a cold, dry, and windy winter with persistent weak layers on our radar for the whole season. Over the last several weeks, these buried weak layers have been under low stress and have slowly been gaining strength. This is likely to change in the near future as temperatures warm through our forecast zones. Expect to see an increase in loose snow avalanche activity on South to West aspects.  As this activity increases, weak layers deeper in the snowpack will also become stressed, especially in areas with a thinner, weaker snowpack.   If you see any activity out there, posting a public observation will help us track the expected increase in activity coming up.  

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.  

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