Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

There is a chance of triggering an avalanche up to 2’ deep above 2,500’ on a layer of weak snow. This problem can be hard to assess, so choosing slopes with clean runouts and exposing one person at a time in avalanche terrain increases the chances of a positive outcome if an avalanche does occur. Wet loose avalanche activity may ramp up in the afternoon. You can manage these by choosing shadier slopes if you start sinking into wet snow.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Forecast Operations: We have transitioned to our late season forecasting schedule, issuing forecasts Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday. Our last forecast will be Thursday, April 30th followed by our annual "Spring Tips" on May 1st. 

Hiking on trails below avalanche paths this time of year is dangerous and not recommended.  Avalanches may release into valley bottoms, covering up summer hiking trails. This includes the Marathon Jeep Trail, which is a terrain trap for most of the hike. Other trails in this area that can be dangerous right now include the Russian Lakes trail to the Barber Cabin, Crescent Lake, Ptarmigan Lake, and Victor Creek Trail. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent Avalanches: Last week, several slab avalanches were observed on the north side of Lowell Peak and on a southerly slope where a larger avalanche ran to the ground. It has been 11 days since a human triggered avalanche occurred on South Resurrection Peak. They escaped the debris which ran 4,000’ to the valley bottom.

    There are several weak layers buried 1 to 2’ deep that we are watching out for today. Most of the avalanches on these layers occurred a week ago above 2,500’.  Avalanches may be larger and easier to trigger in the Seward Coastal Mountains. Unfortunately weak layers can be hard to assess in the field. Snow pit tests may not be reliable, and red flags such as whumphfing sounds or shooting cracks may not be present. The best way to manage this problem is by choosing slopes that have a clean runout which means there are no rocks or trees in them and if an avalanche was triggered the debris would fan out instead of piling up in a terrain trap. Practice safe traveling in consiquential terrain by exposing only one person at a time on the way up and down. Consider that small dry or wet loose avalanches may trigger one of these weak layers resulting in a larger avalanche than expected.  

    Wind Slabs may be problematic below ridgelines and convex rolls where they tend to form. The snow underneath you may feel firm and sound hollow or you may see shooting cracks, all signs you are traveling on a wind slab. 

    (4/14/2026)

    Several slab avalanches on NW face of Primrose Peak between 3,0000 and 4,000'. The avalanches near the ridgeline look like they propagated around 400'.

    Photo: Daniel Krueger

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As the sun heats up the snow it will become easier for rollerballs to release naturally and for you to trigger a wet loose avalanche. These will be more likely in the afternoon on steep, sunny slopes and at lower elevations where the snow is wet. These could be larger than expected and run for long distances. If you are sinking up to your shins in snow the safest option is to head to shaded slopes or lower angle terrain. There is also a chance that a wet loose avalanche may trigger a larger avalanche on a layer of weak snow. 

    This is the season where cornices begin falling off of ridges potentially triggering avalanches above you. Keep your head up and don’t linger under them. If you are on a ridge make sure you are not on a cornice. Your weight could cause it to fall, triggering an avalanche.

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