Avalanche forecast

Central Sierra Nevada

Sierra Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 9 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche activity will remain unlikely in most areas today except in isolated areas where a slab layer exists above loose weak snow (facets) where small isolated human-triggered persistent slab avalanches may be possible. As a result, the avalanche danger remains at MODERATE at all elevations. As rain and snow begin to fall this evening some loose wet instabilities may start to form during the night and some of those isolated persistent slabs may become easier to trigger.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    The prolonged dry period combined with a shallow snowpack has allowed a layer of loose weak sugary snow (facets) to form on northerly aspects across the forecast area. In most areas, no slab layer exists above this persistent weak layer. However, isolated slab layers do exist on some NW-N-NE aspects in the form of hard wind slabs in near and above treeline terrain and some softer slabs in below treeline terrain. Observations over the last week have indicated that in those isolated areas where the combination of persistent weak layer with a slab on top of it exists, the weak layer has weakened to the point that it can barely support the snow above it. Human triggered persistent slab avalanches may be possible in those areas today. Despite the light precipitation amounts associated with this storm, some of these isolated persistent slabs may become easier to trigger during the night as rain and snow add a bit more weight to the snowpack.

    Signs that conditions conducive to persistent slab avalanches may exist include: human-triggered cracking, collapsing or whumpfing, a hollow sounding snowpack, feeling a softer weaker layer of snow below the surface with a probe or pole or hand pit, unstable snowpit tests, and any other signs that a slab may exist above weak faceted snow. Clues to instability may be difficult to find unless just the right combination of slab over weak layer exists, and an isolated human-triggered avalanche may represent the first clue to an unstable slope. Use safe travel protocols when traveling in and around avalanche terrain.  A shallow snowpack with numerous barely covered and still exposed obstacles would magnify the consequences of any size avalanche.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Loose wet avalanche activity will remain unlikely during the day today and will not represent an avalanche problem until it starts raining tonight. Once rain starts falling on the current snowpack during the night, loose wet avalanches will become possible in areas where soft snow exists on the snow surface. If for some reason a person has to travel in the backcountry during the night in an area where rain is falling on the snow, loose wet instabilities could be possible. 

Avalanche Discussion

* Observations in the Carson Pass, Desolation Wilderness, West Shore Tahoe,  Deep Creek, Pole Creek, and Donner Summit areas during the last week continue to reveal signs of persistent slab instability including snow surface cracking, whumpfing, and/or unstable snowpit test results. This instability exists on NW-N-NE aspects in some isolated areas where loose sugary snow (facets) exists below either a hard or soft slab.

* Loose weak sugary snow (near surface facets) without an overlying slab is fairly widespread across the forecast area on northerly aspects in wind protected, below treeline areas.

* Snow surface conditions range from wind scoured snow and firm ice in near and above treeline terrain to lingering areas of soft unconsolidated snow on sheltered northerly aspects below treeline.

* Northerly aspects above 8000 ft in the Mt. Rose area and along the Sierra Crest north of Emerald Bay hold the best snow coverage at 2 to 3+ feet. Overall less snow cover exists south of Emerald Bay, but decent coverage exists above 8,500 ft. on northerly aspects in the Carson Pass area.  Coverage becomes patchy on other aspects with large areas of bare ground on many southerly aspects at all elevations.

Regions covered