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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2017–Mar 24th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Wind and snow will build fresh wind slabs throughout the day. Avoid lingering in the runout of avalanche paths because a cornice fall could trigger a large avalanche.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Increasing cloud and afternoon flurries with about 5 cm, strong southwest wind, freezing level around 1600 m with alpine temperature around -3 C.SATURDAY: Overnight snow with another 10 cm easing and clearing throughout the day, strong southwest wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature around -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, a few small storm slabs were reported to run naturally overnight in steep alpine terrain and then also react to explosives in the morning (size 1-1.5). More evidence of large deep persistent slab avalanches from last weekend's avalanche cycle were also reported from the Barnes Lake and Cold Feet areas.Expect wind slabs to develop throughout the day on Friday as another pulse of snow and wind arrives in the afternoon. However, the primary concern is the potential for deep persistent slab avalanches triggered by natural triggers such as a cornice fall. See the forecaster blog for advice on managing a low probability - high consequence problem (here) and the accompanying photos (here).

Snowpack Summary

Light precipitation has delivered 15-25 cm of heavy snow at higher elevations, while rain soaked has the snow below about 1800 m. The new snow has fallen on a thick rain crust that has capped the snowpack at all elevations. Daytime warming and sunlight tend to break down the crust in some areas, but it remains frozen on northerly alpine terrain. Isolated basal facets exist in shallow snowpack areas and still have the potential to produce destructive full-depth avalanches.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.