Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Snowfall will slow on Monday after a storm produced wildly variable amounts of snow throughout the zone, totaling about 2 - 4 feet. Natural avalanches likely occurred Sunday and Sunday night, at least in some areas of the zone. After such a big storm, give the snow more time to adjust by avoiding all steep slopes, and sticking to lower-angle terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Snow conditions are extremely variable on both a slope-to-slope scale and throughout the zone right now. In most areas of the zone, it's likely that you could trigger a large storm slab avalanche that could kill you on Monday. Storm slabs may entail non-wind-affected snow or wind-affected surfaces. There are also a few persistent weak layers we've been watching closely, and there's a very small chance you could trigger an avalanche that could fail 1-2ft beneath the new storm layer on one of those layers as well.

    Using tests like hand pits and small test slopes probably won't work well at finding weak layers with the amount of snow we just received. Even standard pit tests might not identify storm weaknesses very well. Any failure planes may not be obvious until you get out on a slope and trigger an avalanche- so avoid all slopes greater than 30°. If you see any red flags like avalanches that came from the tail-end of this storm, or notice any whumphing, or if you have any doubt, it wouldn't be a bad idea to avoid traveling beneath large avalanche paths as well, especially if you make your way towards upper elevations. 

    Example photo: A large storm slab avalanche, approximately 3 feet deep on Hemispheresin the Baker backcountry. This is similar to what you might trigger or see as a natural avalanche from the previous day on Monday. 

    Photo: Adam Ü

Avalanche Discussion

Reactive 8-12 inch slabs were reported both by patrol at Baker Ski Area and in the Baker backcountry on Sunday. These avalanches were failing in areas that were affected by the wind and ones that weren't. Water and snowfall totals in that location were recorded as less than half the amount of other locations in the zone, so we expect larger avalanches resulted in other areas. On Sunday it rained up to almost 4000ft before transitioning to snow. Snowlines will drop Sunday night. Temperatures will be cold on Monday and for the next couple of days. 

We've been keeping tabs on weak layers that exist in our snowpack from the last few weeks. Above the solid Early February Crust, weak snow may exist. It's predominantly on upper-elevation slopes that aren't south-facing. In some locations, we've found that it's rounding and becoming less reactive, while in other areas it still propagates in pit tests. This layer is probably 1-2ft beneath the new snow layer, so an avalanche failing on it would be several feet deep. Surface hoar from Wednesday and Thursday may exist on some shady slopes, beneath the new snow layer as well. Avalanches that break on any of these persistent weak layers will likely surprise you by failing deeper and/or propagating further than you would normally expect.

In non wind-affected areas, you may trigger or see natural dry loose avalanches on steep slopes. If the sun pokes out, very small wet or dry loose avalanches might occur. Right now there's enough uncertainty in the snowpack that this isn't the time to get out any steep slopes. Stick to lower-angle terrain on Monday. Riders reported good snow conditions on Sunday, but it was windy. Some saw signs of instabilities, others didn't. Creeks and holes sneakily buried at mid and lower elevations are a big concern. If you get out, please share what you saw with us by submitting an observation. 

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