Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Considerable today at all elevations. 4-5’ of heavy snow has fallen across our forecast area over the course of this storm, building storm slabs and testing our weak snowpack below. While many large natural avalanches have likely run during the storm, dangerous avalanche conditions still exist. Very large human triggered avalanches will be likely and natural avalanches are still possible. 

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Skies cleared overnight after 48 hours of intense snowfall and high winds. DOT recorded 4-5’ of new snow with winds coming primarily out of the south. A high degree of uncertainty remains about the stability within the new storm snow we have received, but with strong winds and a fluctuating freezing line there is likely multiple density changes within the new snow and uneven storm slab distribution. Being not even 24 hours out from when the storm subsided expect storm slabs to be touchy today.

    High uncertainty means a high degree of caution is necessary for traveling in the mountains as we assess the changes to our snowpack. Staying off slopes steeper than 30 degrees and not crossing under steep connected terrain is advised. Looking for red flags like recent avalanches, shooting cracks, and whumps can give us an idea of the depth and distribution of instabilities that exist.

    Light snowfall and warming temperatures this afternoon are not expected to change the stability throughout the day.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    The weak faceted snowpack from the December drought is now buried deep beneath the latest round of heavy snow that has built up over the last 48 hours. DOT road crews have reported widespread natural avalanche activity across our forecast areas.  With around 4” of snow water equivalent over the course of this storm in the maritime zone and similar amounts to the north, these layers are under extreme load, and buried deep in our snowpack. Triggering a smaller avalanche within the new storm snow could step down to these deeper layers causing a very large destructive avalanche. 

    More field data needs to be collected to assess the distribution of natural avalanches during the storm that occurred on these deeper, weak layers. The 12/1 rain crust in the middle elevations and facets below the stout wind hardened snow at upper elevations. This is a problem that is likely to linger, with high consequences if triggered. Until we have more information keep this avalanche problem top of mind as you plan your routes and travel in the mountains and buckle up for the long haul.

    (12/24/2025)

    Developed facets beneath knife hard wind slab @3200' Crudbusters

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: Avalanches have been reported to have hit the road at Snowslide gulch and 50.5 mile. Artillery triggered activity has been reported at School Bus. Limited details are available due to lack of visibility.

Forecast Discussion:

Our snowpack is undergoing an extreme transition. A December with hardly any snowfall and sub zero temperatures left us with a thin weak base. The most recent round of heavy snowfall is stressing this base as it adjusts to the new load. This warm storm will be good for the snowpack in the long run, but expect this change to occur slowly. This is a very different snowpack than we are used to dealing with in the Chugach, patience and a conservative mindset will be needed when selecting terrain and assessing conditions going forward.

 For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Weather History or Observations sections. 

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