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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2012–Feb 1st, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: 5-10cm of snow easing in the afternoon / moderate southwest winds / freezing level at 1100mThursday: clear / light northwest winds / freezing level at 900m rising in the afternoonFriday: clear skies with a significant warming trend / light and variable winds

Avalanche Summary

Numerous fresh windslab avalanches (size 1.5-2) were observed in the region on Monday in response to Sunday night's warming, moderate winds and continued snowfall. Explosives-controlled avalanches to size 3 were reported in the Kootenay Pass area. It should be said that most recent snowfall amounts were greatest in this area.More deep activity was reported from the Bonnington Range on Saturday where a size 2.5 and a size 3 avalanche were reported to have released on the mid-December surface hoar/facet layer.

Snowpack Summary

Warmer temperatures, moderate southwest winds and moderate snowfall on Sunday night has added to an ongoing wind slab issue creating cohesive and reactive wind slabs at treeline and in the alpine. In some parts of the region the underlying storm snow from last week is sitting on 1 or 2 freezing rain crusts that developed last Tuesday morning. Reactivity on the crust (which sits about 45cm below the surface in most wind-neutral areas) is possible with a large trigger. A few operators are also talking about a surface hoar layer that was buried on January 14th. Its reactivity has been described as "stubborn", but it has potential to size 3. A layer of concern deeper in the snowpack is the surface hoar/facet layer from mid-December. This layer has become less of a concern in the vast majority of locations. In the Bonnington Range, however, it is still on the radar of backcountry travelers as the layer is still reactive and is producing avalanches to size 3 in isolated features. This lingering layer of concern reflects the variability of the snowpack within the region.Snowpack depths in the region are around 230 cm at treeline. Looking forward, a significant warming trend and clear skies are forecast for late Thursday/Friday. Expect increased avalanche activity with this trend.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.