Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Increasing winds along with light snow will add stress to a snowpack with a weak layer that may still be reactive. This will increase the chances of triggering a large avalanche up to 2 to 3 feet deep. Keep this in mind if you are trying to access steep terrain, and take the time to carefully evaluate the snowpack where you are traveling. You can avoid this problem entirely by avoiding steep terrain, especially in areas where it is being actively loaded by the wind.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The return to active weather today will once again add stress to potential weak layers lurking near the bottom of the snowpack. While we are not expecting major snowfall, we are looking to see a spike in the winds. This will load start zones and increase the likelihood of triggering a large avalanche. Although the fresh wind slabs we are anticipating will not likely be very large, the potential for making a bigger avalanche failing deeper in the snowpack remains a concern.

    Based on what we saw during the previous week, it appears this layer is gaining strength. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to just how stubborn this weak layer has become. This will be important to keep in mind if you are considering getting into steeper terrain. This is the kind of problem that seldom gives reliable feedback and can catch people by surprise. Take the time to carefully assess the snowpack and consider avoiding larger steep slopes that have terrain features that increase the consequences of getting carried in an avalanche like gullies, trees, or rocks.

    (12/5/2024)

    This snowpit on Colorado is a week old, but it illustrates the concerning snowpack structure that we are dealing with in the Summit Lake zone.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    It is starting to look like the glide avalanche cycle is slowing down in the Summit Lake area. The last known glide avalanche in this area was over a week ago. However, these avalanches are notorious for being impossible to predict and are nothing to mess with. Avoid traveling below slopes with open glide cracks whenever possible, and move quickly and one at a time if you are unable to find an alternate route.

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