Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche 1 to 3’ deep on a buried weak layer is our main concern. Strong east winds today will form wind slabs 1 to 1.5’ deep over these weak layers. The most concerning scenario is that a human triggers a wind slab avalanche, which may increase the chance of triggering a deeper avalanche. Today is not the day to get out on steep wind loaded slopes where you will likely find both of these problems.

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Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    A lot is going on today above 2,500’. Right now the snowpack has weak layers 1 to 3' deep at upper elevations. It has shown signs of slowly healing but several weak layers exist that were likely responsible for large avalanches during the Holiday storm. Since that time, weak snow (facets and surface hoar) has been growing on the surface of the snow. The strong east winds gusting 40 mph today will create wind slabs 1 to 1.5' deep that will form over this weak snow. This will increase the chance and size of a wind slab avalanche. So if a human were to trigger one of these wind slab avalanches it could trigger a much larger avalanche on a buried weak layer deeper in the snow. 

    There may be recent avalanches so look for them. Shooting cracks and whumpfing sounds are clues you are traveling on a weak snowpack. Stiff snow and shooting cracks are clues that you are traveling on a wind slab. Keep in mind that persistent problems may give you no clues until the slope  slides. The safest option is to choose slopes that are not wind loaded.

    Cornice Fall: Cornices will be growing larger throughout the day and may trigger an avalanche above you. Keep this in mind as you travel under ridge lines where they tend to form. If you do find yourself on a ridge today, give cornices a lot of room by staying far away from the edge of the ridge.

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