Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Yesterday, skiers triggered four different avalanches in this zone. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist. Triggering 1-3 foot thick avalanches is likely today. Avalanches will be easier to trigger in terrain affected by the wind, but are possible in sheltered terrain as well. Avalanches can be triggered from long distances above, below, and to the sides of steeper slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    What is it? Within 48 hours, skiers have triggered five different avalanches in the Wood River Valley (see Media gallery below). If that information isn't alarming on its own, a large cycle of natural avalanches produced widespread activity across this area. Today, you can find the same sensitive 1-3 foot thick slabs in many areas with the recent wind-affected snow.

    Where is it?  These slabs will be the largest and thickest at upper elevations, but you'll also find wind slabs in exposed lower and middle elevation terrain. The foothills around town saw wind-affect early in the storm and can be subtle or hidden by newer snow. Be on the lookout for wind slabs from the valley bottom to the mountain tops, and expect them to be easy to trigger. Even the slightest change in slab stiffness can have an effect on the weak snow below.

    How can you recognize it? Cracks shooting out from your skis or sled and collapsing clearly indicate instability. Look for ripples in the snow, dunes capping ridgelines, and drifts along the sides of gulleys or chutes. Wind-deposited snow will be stiffer and keep your skis or snowmobile on or closer to the surface. Some of these slabs might be masked by recent snow and be more hidden.     

    How can you manage it? Most wind slabs are building on top of persistent weak layers in the snowpack (read Problem #2 below). Because of this, the wind slabs you encounter today may behave more like persistent slabs than "simple" wind slabs. Fresh slabs will be reactive to your weight and may produce avalanches that break wider and deeper than you might expect. Triggering these avalanches remotely (from a distance above, below, or to the sides of steeper slopes) is a real possibility.

    (3/5/23) These large avalanches failed naturally in wind-affected areas on a N-E facing slope at 7000-8400'.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2

    What is it? Yesterday, a skier triggered a large avalanche in "the burn" outside the boundary of Bald Mtn (report). Layers of weak snow in the upper snowpack can produce 1-3' thick slab avalanches. Expect to find weak, sugary facets on shaded slopes and crust+facet sandwiches on slopes that face the sun. You're most likely to trigger a slide involving these layers in areas where the wind has built a slab on top. 

    Where is it? The depth of these weak layers varies from slope to slope, but it's safe to assume that they exist on most slopes. The sensitivity will be amplified in wind-affected terrain (picture to right/above) in more exposed terrain. It is also possible to trigger slides in more sheltered locations, like in the bottom right of this photo.

    How can you recognize it? Shooting cracks and collapsing are clear signs of an unstable snowpack.Natural and human-triggered avalanches will offer guidance on what type of terrain and slopes these avalanches are likely to be triggered on, but it's safe to assume that they exist on many slopes.  It might take some digging into the snow to reveal previous wind-affected layers that the new snow has masked in more sheltered locations. 

    How can you manage it? Persistent weak layers can fail unpredictably and break significantly wider and deeper than you might expect, producing much larger avalanches. The group of skiers who triggered the avalanche out of bounds of Bald Mtn were gaining confidence in the snowpack. They were skiing conservative ridgelines under 30 degrees and seeing lots of tracks in steeper terrain without causing avalanches. Persistent slabs don't always behave in a predicatable way and can fail after many people have played on the slope. Today I recommend you choose simple, conservative terrain to play in. 

    (3/5/23) These large avalanches failed naturally on a E-SE slope at 7400-8200'. 

Avalanche Discussion

Now is the time to be conservative. Don't let the light, fluffy powder lure you into avalanche terrain. The steeper slopes you may have played on last week look much different now. The warning signs are showing themselves in various ways. Recent skier and rider-triggered avalanches should be the biggest red flag, but evidence of natural avalanche activity solidifies this point (see the Avalanche Database).

Pay close attention to the terrain around you and what you are connected to in slope steepness.  Slopes can release while approaching them from below on more mellow terrain. Pockets of slopes steep enough to slide have proven to be enough to cause avalanches, like the one on Baldy "out of bounds" (report), Olympia Gulch off Paterson Peak (report), Quigley Canyon (report), East Fork of Baker Creek (report) and Della Mtn. (report). Cliffs, trees, rivers, and other terrain traps magnify the consequence of even small slides.

Persistent slabs are notorious for not always failing while the first person plays on the slope. Sometimes it will take the next person or the last member of the group to find that "sweet spot" in the snowpack that causes the whole slope to become unglued. Luckily, the terrain in the surrounding mountains offers non-avalanche slopes to have loads of fun on right now. Double-check while measuring slope angles, and when in doubt, err to the side of caution by calling it steeper than you might think. Treat slopes with avalanche terrain with respect and give them a wide berth. 

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