Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Strong westerly winds and recent snow have created cohesive slabs on top of a weak and faceted snowpack that existed before storms over the last week. You can easily trigger avalanches big enough to bury you and we may continue to see avalanches release naturally with continued loading.  Avoid being on or connected to slopes over 30 degrees paying attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.  Triggering a smaller wind slab avalanche on the surface has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Recent snow and strong winds have built 2 to 4-foot slabs over a very weak and shallow snowpack that existed before last week's storms. Weak facets and depth hoar near the ground have struggled to handle recent loading events as we've had natural avalanches every day since last Sunday.  Give avalanche path runouts wide berths as these types of conditions lend themselves to remotely triggering avalanches from the flats below.  Pay attention to obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses.

    Facets that formed on the surface during the dry period of December into January are now buried beneath cohesive slabs.  These faceted weak layers are widespread and continue to remain reactive.

    (1/12/2024) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Strong winds will continue today and drift snow into stiffer more cohesive slabs. The National Weather Service still has us under a high wind warning for today with winds expected to be in the 50 to 70 mph range.  Watch for obvious wind-drifted pillows and stiffening of the snow underfoot avoiding being on underneath slopes that are actively loading, paying attention to shooting cracks off your ski tips.  A smaller Wind Slab avalanche has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanche that may not be survivable. 

    Strong winds yesterday and today were easily drifting the lower-density snow from Thursday's storm into stiffer more cohesive slabs. This included open areas below treeline.  Pay attention to shooting cracks off your ski tips  

    Photo: Andy Bond 1/12/24

Avalanche Discussion

2024 has come in with a bang. Since January 4th we've picked up over 3 feet of snow and close to 3" of SWE.  Thursday's storm overproduced dropping 14 to 18 inches and 0.75" of SWE. Friday brought the winds with West winds in the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts in the 50's.  Strong westerly winds are going to continue today ahead of the next system that pushes into our area tonight through Sunday where we could pick up an additional 3 to 6 inches.  It's been a very active weather pattern over the last week. 

We've let the avalanche warning expire but dangerous avalanche conditions will continue to exist through the holiday weekend.  We've had natural avalanches every day since last Sunday at all elevations on west through north to southeast aspects.  Continued loading from snow and strong winds have created cohesive slabs and have been stressing facets that formed during the end of December into the early January dry period. The one thing that is changing is the size of avalanches is getting bigger as slabs continue to grow at upper elevations. Although below treeline terrain has seen smaller avalanches, the underlying snowpack there remains incredibly weak and we've seen avalanches fail on or near the ground.  

Strong westerly winds yesterday were easily drifting snow and loading the leeward sides of ridgelines as well as cross-loaded terrain features with the swirling winds we see in our box canyon.  We were observing widespread cracking in the wind-affected areas and suspect that deeper stiffer slabs exist above treeline.  Although most of the windward slopes and fetches are stripped we could still see snow drifting as well as slabs becoming stiffer and harder with continued strong winds today.  

The current deep conditions we have out there tends to lead you towards pushing you into steeper terrain just to make a turn. Try to fight that temptation and enjoy just going for a walk as skiing anything under 30 degrees means you'll be wallowing.  It's looking like we'll be going into a period of high pressure after the holiday weekend and we will hopefully see avalanche conditions start to ease. The good news is that we finally have a good base for travel, skiing and riding when we see stability improve.    

 

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