Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You are probably unlikely to trigger an avalanche on Friday. However, increasing easterly winds and light snow in the late afternoon will begin to increase the potential of avalanches in wind-drifted snow. If snowfall and winds increase, consider dialing back your terrain selection to lower angle or wind-sheltered slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1

    Older wind slabs have gained strength and are likely unreactive, so the odds of triggering one of these larger slabs are low. However, as winds shift easterly and increase along with light snowfall on Friday afternoon, we will likely see shallow, fresh wind slabs forming at upper elevations. 

    Actively drifting snow, fresh cornice formations and drifts are great visual clues for identifying problematic slopes. Use small test features to check for shooting cracks, indicating that avalanches are possible. Easterly winds may build slabs in atypical locations, and we expect the likelihood of triggering avalanches to increase later in the day. We expect these avalanches to be small but could have high consequences depending on the terrain and the number of exposed obstacles beneath you. Steering around steep slopes where you identify wind-drifted snow is the best way to avoid avalanches. 

    Example photo: A small wind slab avalanche. If you're stepping out into high-consequence terrain, beware of additional risks, even if an avalanche is small. 

Avalanche Discussion

It won't be much, but we'll see a welcome refresh of snow for Stevens over the next few days. Friday will be a warmup, with most of the snowfall forecasted for Friday night through Sunday. Unfortunately, the southerly component to this storm doesn't tend to favor the Cascade Passes, so we expect new snow totals to max out between 5-6 inches. With increasing winds, new snow avalanche problems are likely limited to mid and upper elevations near ridgelines on lee slopes. However, the new snow could also bury and preserve a myriad of weak snow surfaces and slick crusts, potentially becoming a future avalanche problem.

Over the weekend, a storm brought rain, cooling temperatures, and snow to the zone. A crust formed (12/7 crust) and is buried beneath 2-4 feet of snow. We've found a good bond between the crust and the recent snow in many areas. However, there are reports of weak facets above this crust, possibly a concern for future loading events. Warm and sunny days formed breakable melt-freeze crusts on southerly aspects, while northern slopes hold cold, dry snow with weak surfaces and surface hoar. You can expect challenging, low-snow cover travel below 4000 feet and crusts to be unpleasant in the southern aspects. Northern slopes above 4000ft might provide the best soft snow surfaces for winter recreation. 

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