Wednesday's danger ratings are based on overcast skies. If the sun makes an appearance, consider the avalanche danger to be higher than posted.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
Wednesday: Clear skies in the morning with increased cloud throughout the day / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 2500mThursday: 5-10cm of new snow / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 2100mFriday: Clearing skies / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at about 1800m
Avalanche Summary
Sunday's reports are limited to a single MIN post revealing an impressive Size 3 avalanche in the Little Sands area. This avalanche, along with a number of others observed the same day, appears to have been triggered by solar warming. While the age of the avalanche in the photo is uncertain, backcountry travelers should be ready for ongoing warming to produce these types of avalanches over the coming days.
Snowpack Summary
Strong ridgetop winds have left surfaces wind-scoured and pressed leaving very little in the way of ski penetration at treeline and above. Below around 1700 metres you'll likely find a breakable rain crust. Beneath these variable surfaces lies an estimated metre of storm snow from storms over the past two weekends. The upper half of this layer was deposited as heavy, moist snow, while the lower half is considerably drier and less dense. This 'upside down' storm snow layer lies above a range of previous surfaces that includes wind affected surfaces, a layer of surface hoar in sheltered areas, facets, and/or a thin sun crust. The bond between this earlier storm snow and the old surface is suspected to be improving slowly while hard conditions at the current surface may be diminishing the effect of human triggering. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and stable but isolated basal weaknesses may exist in shallow snowpack areas.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.