Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You can trigger loose avalanches on steep, shady slopes particularly in wind-sheltered areas.  The longer the slope, the more mass a loose avalanche can entrain.  You can get into trouble if a loose avalanche pushes you into trees, gullies, or over cliffs.  The increasing winds today may form shallow drifted slabs on leeward slopes in alpine terrain.  Look for blowing snow or smooth surface textures below ridgetops, below cornices, or cross-loaded in gullies to avoid small, wind-drifted slabs.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Dry loose avalanches (sluffs) are the most problematic on the north half of the compass, especially in wind-sheltered terrain near and below treeline.   Where the upper snowpack is weak and cohesionless, you can easily trigger small sluffs on slopes steeper than about 38 degrees. Ski cuts, moving across the fall-line while descending, or choosing lower-angled slopes are effective techniques to manage this problem. These point release avalanches will continue to fan out and accumulate mass in big terrain with sustained steep slope angles. Use caution above gullies where an avalanche can pile more deeply and above trees and cliffs where the consequences of a small sluff will be exacerbated. 

    A great example of sluff management in terrain where a loose dry avalanche could be more problematic because it gets funneled down a gulley.  

Avalanche Discussion

Your primary avalanche hazard continues to be Loose Dry avalanches (sluffs or point release avalanches).  The cold and relatively dry month of January has slowly weakened snow surfaces on wind-sheltered slopes that face the north half of the compass.  CBAC forecaster staff has been discussing the current Loose avalanche problem on a daily basis so we are prepared to raise the danger rating when it becomes appropriate.  Currently, loose avalanches are very easy to trigger on shaded slopes with a soft snow surface, but the size remains in the D1 to D1.5 category (short of the volume needed to bury a person without a terrain trap).  Here is a recent example of a Loose Dry avalanche from Whetstone that wasn't big enough to bury a person, yet big enough to knock you down and carry you.  To quote Zach Guy's discussion from yesterday "The avalanche danger is on a sliding scale and sometimes conditions don't fit perfectly into the five pre-defined levels.  The likelihood of triggering a noteworthy avalanche fits better with MODERATE danger today, while the size fits better with LOW".  Expect to trigger a sluff on all slopes steeper than about 38 degrees that face the north half of the compass.  If you are not comfortable or experienced with sluff management consider choosing terrain completely free of terrain traps (trees, rocks, cliffs, or gullies), or simply choose mellower slope angles to avoid the problem.

Alpine winds will be on the increase today initially starting from the southwest and transitioning to the northwest as the day progresses.  Small amounts of low-density snow are available for transport which may lead to shallow slabs forming on leeward terrain features.  Look for active transport or smooth snow surfaces on leeward terrain to identify fresh drifts.  You can simply steer around suspect-looking areas to avoid triggering a small slab avalanche.  Drifted slabs are expected to remain small, but could prove dangerous if you were knocked down in extreme or exposed terrain. 

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