Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and sunny skies on Wednesday will mean that small Wet Loose avalanches will be likely on South slopes below treeline.  They will also be possible near treeline and on the warmest slopes above treeline.  If you find yourself sinking into melted snow, be wary of slopes where there are terrain traps like cliffs, trees, or gullies that could make a small avalanche worse.  If you are sinking deeply into slushy snow, avoid steep sunny terrain altogether.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    On Wednesday Wet Loose avalanches will be likely on South slopes at lower elevations and even possible higher in the terrain.  The vast majority of these avalanches will be small.  There was an observation submitted on Tuesday from Santiam Pass of small Wet Loose avalanches (see picture).  On Tuesday the temperature reached 55.6 F at Santiam Pass!

    On Wednesday it will be warm and sunny.  The warm temperatures and heat from the sun will melt the surface snow, and as the ice grains loose cohesion they flow downhill.  The steepest South slopes absorb the most heat from the sun.  Similarly, Wet Loose avalanches will occur initially near rocks and cliffs that absorb more heat.  Under these weather conditions you can control your interaction with Wet Loose avalanches by timing your riding and planning your tour to avoid the sunniest slopes later in the day.  If you find you are sinking deeply into melting snow, it is time to avoid steep slopes.

    (1/14/2025) Small Wet Loose avalanche observed at Santiam Pass

    Photo:  Dave Hill

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Cornices are weakened by the warm temperatures and heat from the sun.  Cornice collapses are always unpredictable, but we tend to see increased collapses during these periods of warm, sunny weather.  Even when you are touring on shady North slopes, remember that the cornices looming overhead may be getting cooked by the sun.

Avalanche Discussion

I'm not sure that we'll see much Wet Loose avalanche activity high in the mountains.  The windy conditions over the weekend definitely eliminated a lot of the soft snow up high, and the remaining crusts and hardened wind slab are less likely to produce Wet Loose avalanches.  Nonetheless, I wouldn't be surprised to see debris on some of our very steep, rocky, South slopes. 

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