Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow totals for the zone aren't that remarkable, yet Friday is not your average dangerous storm day. New snow is falling on a uniquely weak and complex snowpack, and its strength is being tested for the first time. Plan a conservative route and limit your exposure to avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A wide variety of weak or slick surfaces are being put to the test for the first time as new snow falls on top. As more snow accumulates, expect an increase in hazard throughout the day. Some of your usual tips and tricks for managing this problem, like digging hand pits, might not work as well on Friday. Look for the clearest signs of instability: cracks shooting from your sled or skis, collapsing (whumpfing), and recent natural or triggered slab avalanches. Use extra caution if you are moving through or just below areas where avalanches can start. Since hazard is always the highest during or immediately after a storm, consider sticking to slopes less than 30 degrees on Friday.

    In complex and exposed terrain at upper elevations, you will find deeper and denser slabs where the wind has transported snow. An avalanche in this terrain will be bigger and more consequential. Wind-loaded snow is often found just below ridgelines and in cross-loaded gullies. Blowing snow will tell you what side of a slope is being actively loaded. Similar signs of cracking, collapsing, and recent avalanches will indicate that similar slopes are unstable. Dial it back to more sheltered and mellow terrain if you see any red flags.

    (12/26/2024)

    Intentionally triggered slabs with ski cuts by Crystal Mountain Pro Patrol (12/26).

    Photo: Crystal Mountain Pro Patrol

Avalanche Discussion

The end of June-uary is here! Areas closer to the Cascade Crest should see a couple of inches by Friday morning and 6-8 inches in total for the zone of wetter, heavier snow by the end of the day. There is also the potential for precipitation to fall as rain below 3000 feet, but the likelihood is low. As we move into Friday night, considerably lower-density snow will continue to fall.

We are all chomping at the bit to dive into this snowpack refresh, but right now is the time to take a BIG step back. The current snowpack is highly variable and exceptionally weak in many areas. You can find deep layers of weak facets on north and east aspects at all elevations. A NWAC Forecaster even found faceted snow all the way to the ground in the East Central zone on Thursday. This is very abnormal for the Pacific Northwest. Other slopes also have facets, breakable or supportable crusts of varying thickness, or hard wind-affected snow. There is a lot of uncertainty about how things will play out as these layers are buried. As these conditions will be hard to assess, manage the hazard like you would a persistent slab avalanche problem. Give yourself wide safety margins and understand that avalanches may break in surprising ways or wider than expected. Consider waiting out the stormy weather until we have a clearer picture of avalanche conditions before jumping onto steep slopes.

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