Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A storm is moving out today that brought strong easterly ridgetop winds and heavy snowfall above 1,000' last night. While we might not see natural avalanches today, but it could be easy for a person to trigger a storm slab (~1' deep) or wind slab avalanche (~2 to 3' deep) in the new and windblown snow. A cautious approach to avalanche terrain today that includes testing the snow on small inconsequential slopes is a good way to see how this new snow is stabilizing. It is becoming more unlikely that a person would be able to trigger a very large avalanche on a weak layer buried 4 to 6' deep. This is more likely to occur in the southern part of Turnagain Pass where the snowpack is thinner. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Department of Transportation Avalanche Closure Notification for Wednesday January 22nd, 2025:

There will be intermittent traffic delays Wednesday January 22nd, 2025 on the Seward Highway for Avalanche Hazard Reduction work. From milepost 95-100 on the Seward Highway, North of Girdwood and South of Anchorage, at Bird Flats. Motorist should expect delays of up to 45 minutes between 09:00 AM and 12:00 PM. Updates will be posted on the 511 system. http://511.alaska.gov

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    With 1' of new snow or more in the Girdwood/Turnagain Pass area above 1,000', there will be good chances that a person could trigger a storm slab avalanche. Jumping on a small test slope will be a good way to see how the new snow is bonding to the old surface. Sunburst recorded very strong winds yesterday and last night (97 mph gust!), which combined with the new snow, has created new wind slabs that could be up to 3' deep. With winds this strong, it could be that wind slabs are stubborn already. Feel for firm snow over softer snow to know you are traveling on a wind slab and a shooting crack means conditions are unstable and the snow needs more time to adjust.

    Cornice: As each storm passes cornices continue to grow. Corices are prime for failure during and right after a storm so steering clear both above and below cornices today is a good plan.

    Dry Loose Avalanches: Natural dry loose avalanches were observed in Turnagain and Summit Lake two days ago on steep slopes. This type of avalanche is not generally as dangerous as a slab avalanche, but could catch us by surprise and carry us into trees or over a cliff if enough snow becomes entrained.

    Storm totals from yesterday above 1,000':

    • Girdwood: 1.3" water (~12" snow).
    • Turnagain Pass: 1.3" water (~12" snow).
    • Summit Lake: 0.1" water (~trace -1" snow). 
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 0.6" water (~6" snow). (Another 0.7" water is expected today or 7-8" snow.)

    (1/21/2025)

    Snow total forecast for 3pm Tuesday to 3pm Wednesday. 

    Image courtesy of our friends at the National Weather Service Anchorage office

    Photo: Mik Dalpes

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    We think it is still unlikely , but not out of the question a human could trigger a very large avalanche 4 to 6' deep in Turnagain Pass. The south end of the pass has less snow than the north end and would be the more suspect area that this could occur. Deep slabs don't tend to give much feedback, but we know they are typically triggered from shallow places in the snowpack near rocks or places with less snow.

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