Avalanche forecast

Nelson Lakes

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
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Highlights

Approximately 50 cm of new snow has fallen above 1800 meters during the last storm. Storm slab danger should now be isolated to shady aspects. Loose wet avalanche danger may continue on sunny aspects on Monday due to solar radiation and an increase in freezing level.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Expect loose wet avalanches on north-facing aspects with forecast clear skies and a rising freezing level. Use extra caution, as even a small ride may end in rocky terrain.

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    The recent storm created storm slab danger. This danger will continue to decrease on Monday as the freezing level rises. Storm slab should be isolated to shady and steep aspects where sufficient new snow exists.

Recent Avalanche Activity

We expect that there has been an avalanche cycle during the peak of the last storm. This is currently unverified.

Current Snowpack Conditions

The 50cm of new snow during the last storm overlies a well-settled snowpack above 2000 meters, particularly on the western side of the park. Below 2000 meters, the new snow may overlie a hard rain crust. Below 1700 meters, the snowpack is mostly below threshold (not enough snow to trigger an avalanche). The more moderate air temperatures should have helped reduce the storm slab danger. The new snow will be sensitive to the forecast solar radiation.

Mountain Weather

Fine with light southwesterlies at the ridge crest. The freezing level will be 1100m rising to 1600m .

Sliding Danger

New snow covers the main passes and tramping routes. Sliding into rock is a potential hazard. Ice axe and crampons should be part of your winter gear.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain about how the timing or intensity of solar radiation will affect the snowpack.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered