Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Feb 13 – 14, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Moderate storm for Sunday. Some increased danger, but manageable with good terrain selection.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Looming cornices may become unstable, especially during storms or during warm weather.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–6
    While the probability of triggering deeper layers are low, the consequences of such a slide would be large. Most likely trigger points are steep, rocky start zones in lower snow parts in the north of the forecast region (Duffey Lake or Chilcotins).

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Expect storms slabs to develop in response to loading from new snow and wind.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported. See MIN (Mountain Information Network) posts for avalanche activity during the last storm.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday: 10 cm/mm or so of snow/rain depending on elevation. Freezing level expected to be around 1400 m. Winds westerly 40-60 km/h.  Monday: mostly dry until the late afternoon/evening. Winds light during the day, but picking up to become strong southwesterly in the afternoon. Monday night/Tuesday: A storm is expected to bring another 10 cm/mm of snow/rain with freezing levels around 1700 m and strong southwesterly winds.

Snowpack Summary

New storm slabs are starting to develop in the alpine as 5-10 cm of new snow arrived on Friday. High freezing levels (around 1800 metres) has settled the upper snowpack and developed variable crusts due to overnight cooling. New surface hoar has been reported from the Coquihalla area, that may be buried down 10-20 cm. Conditions across the region are variable. Most areas have not had a freeze below treeline since the last wet storm. A crust that formed after a warm storm at the end of January is now down 50-80 cm. and it does not appear to "bridge" the early January weak layer in the Duffey lake area. This deeply buried persistent weak layer from early January appears to be isolated to the north of the region, and is now buried down about 50-80 cm. This layer continues to produce sudden results in snowpack tests and has been responsible for recent destructive avalanches.

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