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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 13th, 2017–Apr 14th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

The most likely place to trigger an avalanche is in a very steep gully or in wind affected terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Friday: 5-10 cm new snow expected above elevations of around 1000 m, with rain below that. Some clearing in the afternoon possible. Winds 10-20 km/h from the southwest. Saturday: Flurries. Freezing level around 1000 m. Winds light southwesterly. Sunday: Clearing with some good sunshine. Freezing level rising to 2000 m in the afternoon.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday in the wake of the storm, slab avalanche conditions are most likely to exist in the following locations: a) very steep gullies; and b) on the downwind side of ridges and summits. The recent tragic fatal accident on Mt Harvey indicates the importance of moving very cautiously along corniced ridges, which could be prone to collapse at this time.

Snowpack Summary

There's approximately 20-30 cm of new snow at elevations above 1200 m, with plenty of rain-soaked snow below. The new snow and accompanying southeast winds have set up slab avalanche conditions, particularly on the downwind (northerly and northeasterly) side of ridges and summits. Cornices remain large in some areas and could trigger large avalanches when they fail. Additionally, cornices present a falling hazard and should be given a wide berth while traveling on ridgetops.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.