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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 26th, 2014–Dec 27th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Olympics.

Watch for developing storm slabs, wind slabs and possible buried surface hoar, especially in areas receiving the heaviest snowfall with the strongest winds, such as at higher elevations. Choose very conservative terrain.

Detailed Forecast

Increasing storm conditions Saturday. Light rain and snow should increase early Saturday through the day, becoming moderate to possibly heavy, along with increasing westerly crest level winds. This should build unstable storm and wind slab layers through the day, with wind slabs spreading to NE-SE facing exposed terrain, especially below ridges by afternoon. 

Expect dangerous avalanche conditions near and above treeline, especially by late Saturday afternoon. Careful snowpack evaluations, cautious routefinding and conservative decision-making will be essential Saturday. 

Snowpack Discussion

This is the first backcountry avalanche forecast for the Olympic zone this season!

NWAC observer Tyler Reid confirmed that as of Friday, 12-26, there was now sufficient snow to produce avalanches and get someone in trouble if in the wrong spot. There is still a very shallow snowpack at elevations near 5000 feet, however, in the NTL zone sufficient coverage now exists as paths fill in. 

Have a look at Friday's video observation by Tyler Reid:

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.