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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2015–Feb 14th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

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It is a stretch to find a primary avalanche problem Saturday, but some sunshine later in the day, especially in the southern areas may make shallow wet snow avalanches possible. 

Detailed Forecast

A few showers early Saturday should give way to mostly cloudy conditions later Saturday and cooler temperatures. The cooler temperatures should begin to refreeze surface snow and form a crust at mid and upper elevations. This should put a lid on the potential for any wet snow avalanches. 

Loose wet avalanches are unlikely Saturday due to the cooling, some some shallow wet snow may persist.    

As a result of the overall low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

Snowpack Discussion

The latest warm and wet southwest flow directed to the Pacific Northwest brought several inches to around a foot of water to the west slopes late last week through the weekend, falling mostly as rain. This lead to more melt at lower elevations, making many slopes below treeline nearly snow free, regardless of aspect.   

About 5-12 inches of heavy snow accumulated  near and above treeline ending early Tuesday west of the crest based on weather station data and reports.

Signs of loose wet activity that began Tuesday was dampened by the extensive high cloud cover on Wednesday. Despite the continued warmth and high freezing levels, several NWAC observers along the west slopes Wednesday reported no avalanche activity in the below and near treeline zones. The most recent storm snow in the upper snowpack near treeline was reported as wet and well bonded to the previous rain crust.  

No avalanche activity has been reported over the past few days through Friday.

The mid and lower snowpack west of the crest should consist of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.