Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Saturday

Friday night: 5cm new snow is expected with strong westerly winds. Saturday: a further 5cm new snow with moderate westerly winds. Treeline temperatures around -7C. Sunday: Flurries expected. Some light snowfall may push up into the Cascades. Moderate westerly winds. Temperatures around -9C. Monday: Flurries with strong westerly winds. Temperatures dropping to around -15C.

Explosive control produced avalanches uo to size 3 in very steep north aspect terrain along the Coquihalla on Thursday, with some avalanches scouring to ground. This indicates to me that with the right load (eg. a cornice release or airborne sledders) hitting the right bit of terrain (steep, thin) you can still get a dangerous avalanche to release in this region.

Warm daytime temperatures and cool overnight temperatures have created a hard, crusty surface layer in many places, even up into the alpine. Surface hoar is growing on this surface, reportedly 3-5mm at this time. While it's on the surface, it obviously doesn't cause us too many problems, but if it is buried with snow, it has the potential to become our next touchy weak layer.The upper snowpack comprises a series of storm snow layers, which have generally bonded well to each other and are now gaining strength. Fresh new wind slabs have developed in response to strong southwesterly winds. Winds also blew from the north for a while, and there are reports of areas where reverse loading is an issue. Concern for lower snowpack layers remains only in low snowpack areas, such as the east side of the Duffy or in the Chilcotins. If you're a keen follower of the bulletins you'll notice I've taken the persistent weak layer problem out of the primary problems for this region. It really seems as though this layer has been sufficiently buried for long enough that it no longer pose a threat in the vast majority of locations. If you're riding steep aggressive lines in open terrain in one of the shallower snowpack areas mentioned above, I would still be concerned with deeply buried persistent weak layers. The layers of concern are surface hoar and/or facets associated with a crust from mid-December and/or sugary facets at the base of the snowpack, particularly in sheltered treeline areas that are unusually shallow or on slopes where you can see rocks poking up out of the snow.