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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 22nd, 2017–Feb 23rd, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

Lingering but isolated wind slabs, will continue to heal, becoming less sensitive to human triggering. Avoid cornices and watch for any wet snow conditions developing during extended sun breaks. 

Detailed Forecast

Thursday should remain cool with scattered snow showers, mainly in the afternoon. Very light new snow is expected, if any.

Sunbreaks are likely Thursday with light winds.   

Lingering wind slabs should continue to heal and become less sensitive to human triggering Thursday. Wind slabs should be isolated and confined to specific terrain features, more likely on N-E-S aspects near and especially above treeline.

Loose wet avalanches will not be indicated as an avalanche problem, but watch for wet surface snow if you find yourself on sun exposed slopes during extended sunbreaks.

 

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

The latest of several warm, wet SW streams of moisture this season arrived on Valentines Day 2/14 bringing another round of heavy rain, avalanches, crusts and consolidation through Thursday 2/16 in the Olympics. Minor snow was seen at Hurricane Ridge at the tail end of the storm.

A short period of fair weather on Friday, 2/17 caused another surface crust, especially on solar aspects. Light amounts of new snow accumulated over the weekend. The NPS rangers reported 5 inches of snow Monday morning at Hurricane Ridge. 

A mix of sun and light snow showers Wednesday freshened the surface with a few inches of snow at cool temperatures and light winds by Wednesday afternoon.  

Recent Observations

NWAC pro observer, Matt Schonwald traveled to the Hurricane Hill region Friday. A hard, slick surface crust made travel precarious early Friday before the sun and warming began softening the crust. The few inches of snow fell during the tail end of the storm had bonded well and filled in many rain runnels, helping to smooth surface conditions. There was little evidence that the latest rain event produced any avalanches. The main hazard in the Hurricane area appeared to be an uncontrolled fall on the slick crust.

An observation via the NWAC Observations page for Hurricane reports a sizable loose wet avalanche on the W-SW side of Steeple Rock that probably occurred during the 2/14-2/16 period.

An observation via the NWAC Observations page from Mt. Ellinor on Sunday reported locally more snowfall and touchy avalanche conditions on Sunday.  

No other observations.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.