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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2016–Jan 23rd, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect for this region.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A cooling and drying trend is expected to start on Saturday. Cloudy skies, light winds, cool temperatures and a few flurries are expected on Saturday, with sunny skies possible on Sunday/ Monday.For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous large (size 2-3) persistent slabs failed naturally or with artificial triggers this week. Many of these were remotely triggered, highlighting the extreme sensitivity of the buried weak layer. These events appear to be on all elevations and aspects, but seem to have been somewhat limited in distribution across the region. On Friday, a large natural avalanche cycle to size 3.5 was reported by one operator near Valemount. In other parts of the region, the persistent slab may not get such a good clean-out and the problem may linger for human-triggering beyond the end of the storm.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy new snow and strong winds have created storm slabs in many places and wind slabs on features lee to the south. This will also add load and stress to the already volatile persistent slab. There are a couple of highly reactive layers of surface hoar buried in the upper snowpack, which have been responsible for recent avalanches. The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong, with any weak layers considered dormant for now. Snowpack depths are variable and shallow snowpack areas may have weak facetted crystals near the ground.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.