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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2019–Mar 24th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

The best riding will likely be on high elevation north facing features, but travel with caution, as a buried weak layer may still be in play. Although temperatures have cooled slightly, loose wet avalanches remain a concern on Sunday.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

We're moving into a weather pattern more in keeping with seasonal norms. Monday night's storm should offer a nice refresh at upper elevations and temperatures should remain cool, at least through Wednesday morning.SATURDAY NIGHT: Light variable wind, freezing level around 2200 m, trace of snow possible. SUNDAY: Overcast, light variable wind, freezing level around 2200 m, 1 to 3 cm of snow possible at upper elevation. The freezing level should drop down to 1500 m Sunday night.MONDAY: Broken cloud cover, light to moderate southerly wind, freezing level holding around 2000 m, no significant precipitation expected during the day. The freezing level drops to about 1500 m Monday night with 2 to 6 mm of precipitation expected. This will likely start as rain at lower elevations and should produce a trace to 5 cm of snow above treeline, stay tuned for more details.TUESDAY: Overcast, moderate to strong southwest wind, freezing level around 1500 m, 1 to 5 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday natural loose wet activity to size 2 was reported throughout the region.

Snowpack Summary

Solar aspects are melting during the day and freezing at night. Only the upper 10 to 20 cm is re-freezing into a solid crust which typically breaks down by noon. Most solar slopes at lower elevations are becoming isothermal. You can still find dry, wintery snow on North facing slopes above 2000 m and variable wind effect remains. Two crusts exist in the upper snowpack and the bond of the overlying snow is our biggest concern. The first crust is down 20 to 30 cm and loose wet avalanches have recently slid on this interface. The deeper one down 60 to 95 cm has produced easy shears in test profiles. Avalanches on this interface are unlikely, but possible. This interface should become less of a concern with cooler temperatures early next week.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.