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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 13th, 2012–Apr 14th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Purcells.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure is expected to slowly move into the interior ranges on Saturday. Unsettled conditions with showers in the valleys and flurries above 1700 metres should continue during the day. Clearing skies are forecast by Saturday evening, which should bring the freezing level down to about 1200 metres overnight. Sunday should be mostly sunny with light variable winds and a chance of afternoon cloud building as the freezing level rises to about 1800 metres. The wind is expected to start to build out of the southwest on Monday as a low pressure system moves onto the south coast. It is a little too early to forecast when this system will push into the eastern ranges of the interior mountains.

Avalanche Summary

There was a size 2.5 slab avalanche that released naturally on the March 27th crust near Golden. On Thursday there were natural and explosive controlled avalanches up to size 3.0 that were suspected to have run on the March 27th weak layer.

Snowpack Summary

Some areas in the north and west are reporting that there was no freeze again on Thursday night. In the south of the area it was reported that there was a freeze above 1700 metres. We are getting into a classic spring melt-freeze scenario. When the temperatures rise in the afternoon and when we have periods of rain showers the snowpack will weaken and moist to wet point releases may be initiated. There is a crust that was buried around the 27th of March that has some preserved facets above it that is now down about 100 cm. This crust may propagate wide avalanches if large triggers like moist and wet avalanches get bit moving. This crust is mostly an issue on south aspects. Deeply buried facets from early in the season may continue to be triggered on northerly aspects during periods of extended warming.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.