Most terrain has an overall LOW avalanche danger. Sluffing in the low density snow is a concern in the steepest terrain. Human triggered avalanches 2-4' deep are unlikely at this point and isolated to steep, thin, rocky terrain on northwest to east facing slopes. Remember that risk is inherent in mountain travel.
Heads Up: Tomorrow's storm will be a game changer. The avalanche danger may reach HIGH in the coming days.
The Provo section of the Wasatch Range is home to some of the most radical terrain in Utah. This is where the sluffing of the new low density powder is the most problematic: very steep, sustained terrain where these sluffs may trip you up and carry you into trees, over cliff bands, or bury you deeply in terrain traps. They are, however, predictable and manageable for experienced riders.
We sound like a broken record (does anyone even remember what a vinyl record is?) with this persistent weak layer which has a hard slab 3-5 feet thick resting on top of it. This layer is mostly dormant and has generally been gaining strength, but it is not forgotten. We have been keeping an eye on it because it could come definitely to life (video) in the future and produce avalanches if it is stressed by a heavy load of new snow. This layer exists above 9000 feet but is more widespread above 9500 feet on NW though E aspects. This storm will be a good test.
How will this layer react to the coming storm? Good question. With enough snow and wind, it's possible that new avalanches may step down into the old persistent weak layers and most likely on repeater avalanche paths and in steep thin rocky terrain.
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Landmines - Notes from an Army officer frequently deployed to the middle east who is also a skier living in Utah.
Podcasts - Check out two recent ones with Doug Workman and Jenna Malone.
We toured above Aspen Grove yesterday and were easily able to initiate long running sluffs into the UFO Bowls (north of Primrose Cirque). We noted older shallow wind slabs - likely naturals - about a foot deep and 50' wide that likely ran with the most recent wind event.
Skiing and riding conditions are 5 star in the Provo mountains.
Skies are clear above the low level stratus deck and winds are light from the northwest. Temps are in the teens.
It's been a good 2019. 2020 starts with a strong Pacific storm that should bring about a foot - along with sustained strong northwest winds - to the Provo range. Time to re-calibrate the mindset.
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
