Avalanche forecast

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Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow and wind will cause the avalanche danger to increase significantly overnight; tomorrow will be very different from today. For today, human triggered avalanches are possible, particularly in terrain affected by the wind. Avalanches may be triggered remotely—from gentle terrain above, below, or to the sides of steep slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A layer of surface hoar buried 1-2’ deep can be found across our forecast area. Although this layer has been buried for three and a half weeks, it continues to produce obvious signs of instability. On Saturday, in the Salmon River Headwaters, a rider remotely triggered a small slope from below (photo). In the weeks since it was first buried, even small storms and wind events have been enough to reactivate this layer.

    Dealing with persistent weak layers is challenging and frustrating. Even as the snowpack gives us fewer and fewer obvious signs of instability, the possibility of triggering a slide remains. Read more about how I think about dealing with this type of problem in the forecast discussion section below. Persistent slabs can fail in surprising ways and break wider than expected. And, as the slide on Saturday illustrated, they may be triggered remotely—from above, below, and to the sides of steeper slopes. 

Avalanche Discussion

As the days pass without a recent load, the likelihood of triggering slides is decreasing. This type of problem is a tough one for us humans to wrap our brains around. This is especially true when the reward of great skiing or riding is so much more obvious than the possibility of being caught, carried, and buried in an avalanche. A good tactic is to think about how you deal with other problems in your life where the outcome isn’t particularly likely, but the consequences of that outcome are high. Imagine you are driving in the dark, in a snowstorm, with elk scattered all over the highway. Are you wearing your seatbelt? Now try this: it’s daylight and you can see well, but you are driving on an icy, unfamiliar road. Do you still have your seatbelt on? Or have you decided that since the likelihood of getting in an accident is lower you don’t need it anymore?

Health insurance is another great example of this approach. The majority of us don’t wait to purchase insurance until we think the likelihood of needing it is high. Instead, we buy insurance in case the unlikely but highly consequential outcome occurs. 

We deal with the uncertainty of our world by building a wide margin of error into these sorts of situations. We wear our seatbelts even when road conditions are perfect. We carry health insurance even when we are feeling fit and healthy. I’d recommend taking a similar approach in the backcountry when dealing with a persistent slab problem. Practice safe travel habits and conservative decision making in the backcountry. Try to picture the consequences of being caught in a slide in the terrain you are traveling in, not just the reward of riding great powder.

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