Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Westerly winds have drifted the dribs and drabs of snowfall from the past few days into shallow slabs on leeward terrain features at upper elevations.  Today's light snowfall will add a little bit more volume to these fresh drifts, but slabs are expected to remain on the small side.  Look for active snow transport, slightly stiffer snow, and pillowy snow surfaces to help clue you into terrain features that harbor small, wind-deposited slabs.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The odds of triggering a persistent slab continue to decrease under our current snow drought.  On steep terrain features with previous windloading, you may be able to trigger persistent slabs up to several feet thick that fail on weak snow near the ground. Even below treeline, shallow pockets of hard slab exist in a few leeward terrain features.   Persistent slabs often surprise even the most experienced travelers because they give infrequent or irregular feedback.  To avoid this problem,  choose routes that stay off of steep terrain holding dense slabs over sugary weak layers.   You can read the snow texture and avoid terrain where the snowpack looks or feels deeper, denser, and more windloaded to help you avoid the problem.  The most concerning slopes are on northeast, east, and high southeast facing terrain.  You may be able to find isolated exceptions to the distribution rose on cross-loaded terrain features on other shady aspects.  Riding on steep terrain where the snowpack is softer and faceted throughout is the safest option.

    1.18 Small skier triggered hard slab on a cross loaded terrain feature. This avalanche ran into a higher consequence terrain trap formed by the Slate River below.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Moderate westerly winds have drifted the low-density snowfall from the past three days into shallow slabs on leeward terrain features at upper elevations.  You may find them below cornices, beneath ridgetops, and behind cross-loaded ribs.  Portions of the Northwest Mountains, along the Ruby Range, have accumulated 6 to 8-inches of snow since Tuesday and will represent the areas with the most substantial Wind Slab formation.  

Avalanche Discussion

The danger rating was increased today to MODERATE to account for the slowly accumulating snowfall from the past few days and today.  Westerly winds have been blowing at speeds around 20 mph at ridgetop which makes for very efficient loading.  The amount of available snow for transport is relatively low, but with efficient westerly wind speeds, you should expect to find shallow Wind Slabs at upper elevations.  Areas along the Ruby Range, in the Northwest Mountains, are the most suspect as the most snow has fallen there, but there is uncertainty about how much snow has fallen to the east of Crested Butte in the Brush Creek and Cement Creek drainages (Southeast Mountains).  You can take a look at this observation from yesterday out in the Baxter Basin area to see more details about the recent winds and snowfall from the Northwest Mountains.

Shaded slopes below treeline have become very weak during the recent dry spell.  The snowfall from the past few days and today's accumulations are not expected to increase the avalanche hazard much.  Any discernable rise in hazard will come from the slight increase in volume if you were to trigger a loose snow avalanche on a very steep, shady terrain feature below treeline.  An observer yesterday noted some small, skier-triggered loose avalanches on Schuylkill Ridge.  

Weather models suggest a healthy dose of snowfall this evening through Saturday night.  You should anticipate avalanche conditions to become dangerous over the weekend if snowfall forecasts verify or are exceeded.  The generally weak snowpack around Crested Butte will not tolerate a significant loading event before producing natural avalanches and creating conditions that make human-triggered avalanches likely or very likely.  Celebrate that the snow has returned, but remember to keep your head in the game by keeping a sharp eye directed at the increasing avalanche hazard.  Below is the media gallery where you can watch a recent video created by Zach Guy giving a quick tour of the weak snowpack structures that exist around the area that will contribute to the increasing hazard this weekend.

Regions covered