Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Sunny skies and warm temperatures will wet surface snow on sunny slopes at all elevations creating the conditions for natural and human-triggered Wet Loose avalanches.  The avalanche hazard will increase to MODERATE as the warming occurs.  Wet activity will begin on east slopes then transition to southerly terrain and lastly west features following the sun across the sky.  Do not forget about the low probability yet high consequence slab avalanche problem.  An outside chance remains for you to trigger a dangerous avalanche on shallow, rocky, and/or extreme terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    3 to 8" of snow accumulated Thursday, and potentially a few inches more in the alpine. As the strong March sun makes its rounds, wet loose avalanches will become problematic. Beginning with east-facing slopes in the morning, moving onto south, and eventually west-facing slopes this afternoon. Keep an eye on snow surfaces, once the surface snow has become wet you will be able to human trigger this avalanche problem on steep slopes. Natural avalanche activity is possible throughout the day and these will be another clear sign for you to head to lower angled or colder slopes. On Thursday, a skier was pushed off their feet by a small loose wet avalanche. A small avalanche could easily push you into more hazardous terrain or become large in size as they accumulate mass running down big terrain.  

    Wet loose avalanches typically start from a point and grow in size as they descend through the terrain.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Hard slab avalanches breaking 2 to 6 feet deep on old weak snow are creating a low probability but high consequence situation. A triggered avalanche on a high elevation, leeward slope, could be deep and unsurvivable. While in wind-sheltered or windward terrain, the slabs are still sizable and would be large enough to bury you. If you choose to ride in avalanche terrain you may be able to reduce your chance of human triggering by seeking out planar or concave slopes with deep, uniform snow coverage, free of shallow spots, rock bands, and variability from winds. Regroup in safe zones that are clear of unusually wide and long-running avalanches.  

    Most of the avalanches this month have released on weak layers near the ground. The slabs are thick and can propagate surprisingly wide distances across terrain features that might normally feel safe.

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday's sun and warm temperatures produced some natural Wet Loose avalanches, but less than expected.  Today, temperatures will increase by a few degrees which may allow some rocky slopes on the south half of the compass to shed Wet Loose avalanches naturally.  Take a look at these observations to get a better feel for these smaller-sized loose avalanches (ob 1, ob 2, ob 3).  Areas in the Northwest Mountains received the most snowfall from Thursday's storm and have a bit more volume to entrain than locations closer to town and the Southeast Mountains in general.  You can use small test slopes, or ski cuts to help gauge the likelihood of triggering a Wet Loose avalanche.  If you find you are a bit too late for a given slope, then simply move to a cooler aspect.

Although unlikely, the threat lingers for you to trigger a dangerous slab avalanche on weak snow near the ground.  On shaded slopes, you should avoid places with trigger points such as shallow and rocky terrain or features with highly variable depths due to wind effect.  The last reported Persistent Slab in the CBAC forecast area came on February 24th from control work at Irwin and the last reported natural Persistent Slab ran on Whetstone on February 22nd.  Weak layers have slowly improved and adjusted to the load above on many terrain features, but triggering a dangerous avalanche can't be fully ruled out yet if you were unlucky enough to find a shallow spot in a slab and impact the weak layer below.  An additional consideration for the Persistent Slab problem is the impact of the warm, sunny weather.  Just over Pearl Pass, on the Aspen side, a pair of dangerous avalanches failed around Wednesday, 3/3, this week likely due to meltwater infiltrating weak layers near the ground.  The exact details of these two avalanches are uncertain, but it is a reasonable explanation that the shallow and rocky terrain above the avalanches allowed meltwater to weaken the facets at the ground producing failure.  Consider avoiding very warm and wet southerly facing terrain where you find lots of rocks or cliffs above the slope as this might allow liquid water to find its way to the bottom of the snowpack quicker than slopes without rocky areas above thus creating very isolated but dangerous avalanche conditions during the heat of the day.

The snowpack has begun the spring transition on sunny slopes, particularly at lower elevations.  Whereas upper elevation sunny slopes have just begun this transition, and shaded slopes at all elevations remain dry and winter-like.  Stability has improved significantly from two weeks ago, but thoughtful travel remains important.  Make sure your brain is planing for and managing both wet and dry avalanche problems.

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