Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Light snowfall and generally light winds are holding the avalanche danger steady.  At upper elevations, you may find fresh shallow slabs near the surface on leeward terrain as well as the unlikely potential to trigger a more dangerous avalanche deeper in the snowpack on shaded slopes.  Natural and human-triggered avalanches from the past week have shared similar characteristics like upper elevation, shaded aspect, previously avalanched in February, and refilled by wind drifting.  You can reduce your chances of triggering a small avalanche in the recent snow by identifying and avoiding drifted terrain, and you can avoid triggering a deeper failing avalanche by sticking to sunny aspects.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The past week has brought a steady string of near misses and unintentionally triggered soft slab avalanches that released on buried weak layers one to two feet deep (Sunday 1, Sunday 2,  Thursday, Wednesday), along with several naturals (Example A, Example B).  You are most likely to encounter this problem on steep, shaded terrain with variable or thin snowpack depths. Most of the recent avalanches are repeating in paths that ran back in February and have since refilled with snow and wind transport.  Be cautious of higher elevation slopes that look like they have a below-average snowpack (evidenced by more rocks or small trees), or if you see faint old crown lines.  You can reliably avoid the problem on sunny aspects where the snowpack has a stronger spring-like structure.

    3/18: A skier was caught by surprise by this persistent slab on Mt. Axtell.

Avalanche Discussion

Light snowfall continues to slowly add up around the area with up to 4 inches new in 24 hours and the potential for a few more inches today.  The new snow has not created much of an avalanche hazard yet, but some drifting is possible at upper elevations.  You may find isolated Wind Slabs that are small in size on leeward features.  With additional snowfall and the potential for winds to increase, remain observant for fresh slab formation throughout the day on leeward terrain features.  Recent winds have been blowing from atypical directions with an easterly component so drifting may occur on less common aspects.

The Persistent Slab problem continues to linger as an 'unlikley' problem, but offers the potential for you to trigger a large avalanche.  Over the past week, there has been a steady trickle of avalanches both natural and human-triggered.  Take a look at these observations for examples of recent avalanches; Cement, Peeler, Axtell, and near Tin Cup Pass in the Sawatch Range.  The Cement, Peeler, and Axtell avalanches are all upper elevation, northerly-facing slopes that previously avalanched in February.  It would be wise to remain cautious of slopes with similar characteristics.  If you are considering recreating on slopes like this consider going back through our observations page from the February avalanche cycles to refresh your memory about what slopes are known to have avalanched.  You still might be able to see old, faint crown lines on some terrain, but snowfall and wind over the past month have obscured many by this point in time making it difficult to identify just by looking.  Not all shaded slopes that avalanched in February have all the pieces to create an avalanche problem for example take a look at this observation.  One final consideration for triggering a Persistent Slab avalanche would be overall snowpack depth.  Slopes with deep, uniform snowpacks offer safer recreation opportunities as compared to slopes with shallow or highly variable snow depths.  Average snowpack depths around 4 feet or less should help clue you into the increased concern.   Southerly-facing terrain has not shown itself to have a Persistent Slab problem due to previous warm weather and a more spring-like snowpack.

Overall the avalanche hazard has hovered near the bottom end of MODERATE and upper end of LOW for a few days.  Continue to thoughtfully consider your terrain choices and terrain characteristics as there are still a few isolated landmines out there.  Sadly an avalanche fatality was reported from near Beaver Creek on Monday, you can view the preliminary report here.

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